Sitemap - 2007 - Overcoming Bias
Zen and the Art of Rationality
The Greatest Gift, The Best Exercise
Battle of the election forecasters
Argument Screens Off Authority
Give juries video recordings of testimony
Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence
Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult
Does Healthcare Do Any Good At All?
Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs
Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism
Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping)
InTrade fee structure discourages selling the tails?
The Hidden Complexity of Wishes
Not for the Sake of Happiness (Alone)
Overcoming Bias After One Year
Publication Bias and the Death Penalty
Conjuring An Evolution To Serve You
No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices
Nature Endorses Human Extinction
Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
Protein Reinforcement and DNA Consequentialism
Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers
Overcoming bias at work for engineers
The Tragedy of Group Selectionism
Are The Self-Righteous Righteous?
Natural Selection’s Speed Limit and Complexity Bound
A test for political prediction markets
Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway)
Serious Unconventional De Grey
A Terrifying Halloween Costume
Who Told You Moral Questions Would be Easy?
A Case Study of Motivated Continuation
Double Or Nothing Lawsuits, Ten Years On
Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation
Why Are Individual IQ Differences OK?
No One Knows What Science Doesn’t Know
Double Illusion of Transparency
Why I’m Betting on the Red Sox
Explainers Shoot High. Aim Low!
The fallacy of the one-sided bet (for example, risk, God, torture, and lottery tickets)
Expecting Short Inferential Distances
Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You
Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities
Congratulations to Paris Hilton
Hold Off On Proposing Solutions
The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence
Do We Believe Everything We’re Told?
No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws
What Evidence Divergent Explanations?
Author Misreads Expert Re Crowds?
Avoiding Your Belief’s Real Weak Points
Why More History Than Futurism?
We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think
Recommended Rationalist Reading
What Evidence Filtered Evidence?
How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
Even When Contrarians Win, They Lose
History is written by the dissenters
How Much Evidence Does It Take?
Treat Me Like a Statistic but Please Be Nice to Me
Why so little model checking done in statistics?
Bounded rationality and the conjunction fallacy
Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down)
Bias-awareness bias, or was 9/11/01 a “black swan”
Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased)
Acquisitions Signal CEO Dominance
Human Evil and Muddled Thinking
Rationality and the English Language
Never Confuse “Could” and “Would”
What Evidence Reluctant Authors?
Bad College Quality Incentives
We Don’t Really Want Your Participation
Tyler Finds Overcoming Bias Is important, For Others
No Press Release, No Retraction
Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias
“Science” as Curiosity-Stopper
The pinch-hitter syndrome: a general principle?
What Evidence Ease of Imagination?
Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark
Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions
Is Hybrid Vigor IQ Warm And Fuzzy?
Guessing the Teacher’s Password
Why do corporations buy insurance?
Irrational Investment Disagreement
Is Molecular Nanotechnology “Scientific”?
Are More Complicated Revelations Less Probable?
Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
Are brilliant scientists less likely to cheat?
Sometimes Learning Is Very Slow
Dangers of political betting markets
Conservation of Expected Evidence
Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
Your Strength as a Rationalist
Spencer Vs. Wilde on Truth Vs. Lie
Disagreeing about cognitive style (or personality)
The Importance of Saying “Oops”
The Real Inter-Disciplinary Barrier
Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable
How to Torture a Reluctant Disagreer
Two Meanings of ‘Overcoming Bias’ – For One: Focus is Fundamental. For Second: ?
Self-Interest, Intent & Deceit
Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
Not Every Negative Judgment Is A Bias
Schools That Don’t Want To Be Graded
Investing In Index Funds: A Tangible Reward of Overcoming Bias
They’re Telling You They’re Lying!
How Biases Save Us From Giving in to Terrorism
Privacy rights and cognitive bias
Looking for a Hard-Headed Blogger
Goals and plans in decision making
Two More Things to Unlearn from School
How should unproven findings be publicized?
Reply to “Libertarian Optimism Bias …”
Libertarian Optimism Bias vs. Statist Pessimism Bias
Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative?
Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?
Randomly Review Criminal Cases
Were people better off in the middle ages than they are now?
Tell Me Your Politics and I Can Tell You What You Think About Nanotechnology
Total vs. marginal effects, or, Are the overall benefits of health care “probably minor”?
Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Hughes
Uncovering Rational Irrationalities
Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Cutler
Nutritional Prediction Markets
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton prediction market?
Are any Human Cognitive Biases Genetically Universal?
Winning at Rock-Paper-Scissors
The Perils of Being “Clearer than Truth”
When Differences Make A Difference
Do androids dream of electric rabbit feet?
Are Almost All Investors Biased?
Are Any Human Cognitive Biases Genetic?
Is Your Rationality on Standby?
Opinions of the Politically Informed
The case for dangerous testing
I Had the Same Idea as David Brin! (Sort Of)
The U.S. Should Bet Against Iran Testing a Nuclear Weapon
The Worst You’ve Seen Isn’t the Worst There Is
RAND Health Insurance Experiment II
Doubting Thomas and Pious Pete
RAND Health Insurance Experiment
Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism
Academics Against Evangelicals
The bias in “please” and “thank you”
Social Norms Need Neutrality, Simplicity
Overcoming Bias on The Simpsons
More On Future Self Paternalism
Overconfidence Erases Doc Advantage
The Bleeding Edge of Innovation
Exercise Sizzle Works Sans Steak
Vonnegut on Overcoming Fiction
Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread
Your Rationality is My Business
Priors as Mathematical Objects
Predicting the Future with Futures
Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods
Debiasing as Non-Self-Destruction
Overcoming bias – what is it good for?
Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People
Do moral systems have to make sense?
Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct
Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)
Reporting Chains Swallow Extraordinary Evidence
Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia?
Norms of Reason and the Prospects for Technologies and Policies of Debiasing
Moral Progress and Scope of Moral Concern
All Ethics Roads Lead To Ours?
Bias caused by fear of Islamic extremists
Multipolar disagreements (Hal’s religious quandry)
Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization
Disagreement Case Study: Robin Hanson and David Balan
The Trouble With Track Records
Disagreement Case Study – Balan and I
Moral Dilemmas, Criticism, & Plumping
The Scales of Justice, the Notebook of Rationality
Disagreement Case Study – Hawk Bias
Overcome Cognitive Bias with Multiple Selves
Learn From Politicians’ Personal Failings
Paternal policies fight cognitive bias, slash information costs, and privelege responsible subselves
White-collar crime and moral freeloading
Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
Swinging for the Fences when You Should Bunt
Accountable Financial Regulation
This Is My Dataset. There Are Many Datasets Like It, but This One Is Mine. . .
Professors Progress Like Ads Advise
Think Frequencies, Not Probabilities
Do We Get Used to Stuff, But Not Friends?
How paranoid should I be? The limits of ‘overcoming bias’.
Evidence-Based Medicine Backlash
Selection Bias in Economic Theory
Induce Presidential Candidates to Take IQ Tests
crackpot people and crackpot ideas
Press Confirms Your Health Fears
It’s Sad When Bad Ideas Drive Out Good Ones
Truth is stranger than fiction
Reputation Commitment Mechanism
Is Truth in the Hump or the Tails?
Philip Tetlock’s Long Now Talk
When are weak clues uncomfortable?
How and When to Listen to the Crowd
Just World Bias and Inequality
What Evidence in Silence or Confusion?
Why are there No Comforting Words that Aren’t also Factual Statements?
Effects of Ideological Media Persuasion
On Policy, Fact Experts Ignore Facts
Is There Such a Thing as Bigotry?
Morale Markets vs Decision Markets
Follow Your Passion, From A Distance
A Model of Extraordinary Claims
Agree with Yesterday’s Duplicate
Some Claims Are Just Too Extraordinary
Women’s Mathematical Abilities
Benefits of Cost-Benefit Analyis
Sometimes the Facts are Irrelevant
Statistical Discrimination is (Probably) Bad
Is More Information Always Better?
Should we Defer to Secret Evidence?
Reject Your Personality’s Politics
Epidemics are 98% Below Average
Disagreement at Thoughts, Arguments and Rants
Conspicuous Consumption of Info
Fair betting odds and Prediction Market prices
The cognitive architecture of bias
Two Cheers for Ignoring Plain Facts
What if Everybody Overcame Bias?
Discussions of Bias in answers to the Edge 2007 Question