Sitemap - 2007 - Overcoming Bias

Honest Teen Paternalism

My Strange Beliefs

Cultish Countercultishness

To Lead, You Must Stand Up

Econ of Longer Lives

Lonely Dissent

On Expressing Your Concerns

Too Much Hope

Asch’s Conformity Experiment

The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy


Zen and the Art of Rationality

Effortless Technique

False Laughter

The Greatest Gift, The Best Exercise

Two Cult Koans

Interior Economics

Politics and Awful Art

Judgment Can Add Accuracy

The Litany Against Gurus

Guardians of Ayn Rand

Gender Tax

Guardians of the Gene Pool

Battle of the election forecasters

Guardians of the Truth

Hug the Query

Economist Judgment

Argument Screens Off Authority

Give juries video recordings of testimony

Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence

Tax The Tall

Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult

Does Healthcare Do Any Good At All?

Misc Meta

It Is Good To Exist

The Robbers Cave Experiment

Welcome to Overcoming Bias!

When None Dare Urge Restraint

Modules, signals, and guilt

Evaporative Cooling of Group Beliefs

Doctor Hypocrisy

Fake Utility Functions

Open Thread

Fake Fake Utility Functions

Heroic Job Bias

Uncritical Supercriticality

Resist the Happy Death Spiral

Baby Selling

Affective Death Spirals

Mere Messiahs

Superhero Bias

Leader Gender Bias

The Halo Effect

Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, & Futurism

What Insight Literature?

Evaluability (And Cheap Holiday Shopping)

The Affect Heuristic

Academia Clumps

Purpose and Pragmatism

Lost Purposes

InTrade fee structure discourages selling the tails?

The Hidden Complexity of Wishes

Aliens Among Us

Leaky Generalizations

Good InTrade bets?

Not for the Sake of Happiness (Alone)

Interpreting the Fed

Merry Hallowthankmas Eve

Truly Part Of You

Overcoming Bias After One Year

Artificial Addition

Publication Bias and the Death Penalty

Development Futures

Conjuring An Evolution To Serve You

US South Had 42% Chance

Towards a typology of bias

The Simple Math of Everything

My Guatemala Interviews

No Evolutions for Corporations or Nanodevices

Nature Endorses Human Extinction

Evolving to Extinction

Don’t Do Something

Terminal Values and Instrumental Values

Treatment Futures

Thou Art Godshatter

Implicit Conditionals

Protein Reinforcement and DNA Consequentialism

Polarized USA

Evolutionary Psychology

Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers

Overcoming bias at work for engineers

Fake Optimization Criteria

Dawes on Therapy

Fake Morality

Seat Belts Work

Fake Selfishness

Inconsistent Paternalism

The Tragedy of Group Selectionism

Are The Self-Righteous Righteous?

Beware of Stephen J. Gould

College Admission Futures

Natural Selection’s Speed Limit and Complexity Bound

A test for political prediction markets

Passionately Wrong

Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway)

Serious Unconventional De Grey

The Wonder of Evolution

Hospice Beats Hospital

An Alien God

Open Thread

How Much Defer To Experts?

Fake Justification

A Terrifying Halloween Costume

What Wisdom Tradition?

Random vs. Certain Death

Who Told You Moral Questions Would be Easy?

A Case Study of Motivated Continuation

Double Or Nothing Lawsuits, Ten Years On

Torture vs. Dust Specks

College Choice Futures

Motivated Stopping and Motivated Continuation

Bay Area Bayesians Unite!

Dan Kahneman Puzzles With Us

Why Are Individual IQ Differences OK?

If Not Data, What?

No One Knows What Science Doesn’t Know

Dennett’s Special Pleading

Double Illusion of Transparency

Why I’m Betting on the Red Sox

InTrade Nominee Advice

Explainers Shoot High. Aim Low!

Distrust Effect Names

The fallacy of the one-sided bet (for example, risk, God, torture, and lottery tickets)

Expecting Short Inferential Distances

Marriage Futures


How Close Life’s Birth?

Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You

A Valid Concern

Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities

Hanson Joins Cult

Congratulations to Paris Hilton

Cut US Military in Half

“Can’t Say No” Spending

Buy Health, Not Medicine

Hold Off On Proposing Solutions

Doctors Kill

The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence

My Local Hospital

How to Seem (and Be) Deep

Megan Has A Point

Original Seeing

Fatty Food Is Healthy

The “Outside the Box” Box

Meta Honesty

Cached Thoughts

Health Hopes Spring Eternal

Do We Believe Everything We’re Told?

Chinks In The Bayesian Armor

Priming and Contamination

What Evidence Intuition?

A Priori

Regulation Ratchet

No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws

Flexible Legal Similarity


What Evidence Divergent Explanations?

The Meditation on Curiosity

Author Misreads Expert Re Crowds?

Avoiding Your Belief’s Real Weak Points

Why More History Than Futurism?

We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think

Why Not Dating Coaches?

A Rational Argument

Can School Debias?

Recommended Rationalist Reading

Confession Errors

Open Thread

Precious Silence, Lost


Lies About Sex

What Evidence Filtered Evidence?

Jewish People and Israel

The Bottom Line

False Findings, Unretracted

How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3

Elusive Conflict Experts

9/26 is Petrov Day

Drinking Our Own Kool-Aid

Occam’s Razor

Even When Contrarians Win, They Lose

Einstein’s Arrogance

History is written by the dissenters

The Bright Side of Life

How Much Evidence Does It Take?

Treat Me Like a Statistic but Please Be Nice to Me

Small Business Overconfidence

The Lens That Sees Its Flaws

Why so little model checking done in statistics?

Bounded rationality and the conjunction fallacy

What is Evidence?

Radically Honest Meetings

Burdensome Details

Your Future Has Detail

Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down)

Why Teen Paternalism?

Conjunction Fallacy

Beware Monkey Traps

Outputs Require Inputs

Kahneman’s Planning Anecdote

Epidemiology Doubts

Planning Fallacy

Don’t trust your lying eyes…

Scott Adams on Bias

Naive Small Investors

Why I’m Blooking

Noise in the Courtroom!

Bias-awareness bias, or was 9/11/01 a “black swan”

Doublethink (Choosing to be Biased)

Acquisitions Signal CEO Dominance

Human Evil and Muddled Thinking

Gotchas Are Not Biases

Rationality and the English Language

Never Confuse “Could” and “Would”

What Evidence Reluctant Authors?

Applause Lights

Bad College Quality Incentives

We Don’t Really Want Your Participation

Tyler Finds Overcoming Bias Is important, For Others

Cut Medicine In Half

Radical Honesty

No Press Release, No Retraction

The Crackpot Offer

Anchoring and Adjustment

Why is the Future So Absurd?

Strength To Doubt Or Believe


The Denier’s Dilemna

Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias

Medical Quality Bias

“Science” as Curiosity-Stopper

Basic Research As Signal


The pinch-hitter syndrome: a general principle?

What Evidence Ease of Imagination?

Stranger Than History

Bias As Objectification II

Open Thread

Making History Available

We Are Not Unbaised

Failing to Learn from History

Seeking Unbiased Game Host

My Wild and Reckless Youth

Kind Right-Handers

Say Not “Complexity”

The Function of Prizes

Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark

Is Overcoming Bias Important?

The Futility of Emergence

Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions

Bias Against Torture

Semantic Stopsigns

Exccess Trust in Experts

Fake Causality

Is Hybrid Vigor IQ Warm And Fuzzy?

Science as Attire

Moral Bias as Group Glue

Guessing the Teacher’s Password

Nerds as Bad Connivers

Why do corporations buy insurance?

Fake Explanations

Media Risk Bias Feedback

Irrational Investment Disagreement

Is Molecular Nanotechnology “Scientific”?

Are More Complicated Revelations Less Probable?

Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence


Are brilliant scientists less likely to cheat?

Hindsight Devalues Science

Sometimes Learning Is Very Slow

Hindsight bias

Truth – The Neglected Virtue

One Argument Against An Army

Strangeness Heuristic

Update Yourself Incrementally

Harry Potter the Truth-Seeker

Dangers of political betting markets

Conservation of Expected Evidence

Biases of Biography

Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence

Confident Proposer Bias

I Defy the Data!

What is a taboo question?

Your Strength as a Rationalist

Accountable Public Opinion

Truth Bias

The Apocalypse Bet

Spencer Vs. Wilde on Truth Vs. Lie

You Can Face Reality

Food Vs. Sex Charity

The Virtue of Narrowness

Wishful Investing

The Proper Use of Doubt

Academic Political Bias

Focus Your Uncertainty

Disagreeing about cognitive style (or personality)

The Importance of Saying “Oops”

The Real Inter-Disciplinary Barrier

Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable

Anonymous Review Matters

Belief as Attire

The Dogmatic Defense

Professing and Cheering

How to Torture a Reluctant Disagreer

Open Thread

Two Meanings of ‘Overcoming Bias’ – For One: Focus is Fundamental. For Second: ?

“Only Losers Overcome Bias”

Bayesian Judo

Self-Interest, Intent & Deceit

Colorful Characters

Belief in Belief

Phone-Shy UFOs

Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)

T.S. Eliot Quote

Not Every Negative Judgment Is A Bias

Schools That Don’t Want To Be Graded

The Judo Principle

Beware the Inside View

Goofy Best Friend

Meta Textbooks?

Fantasy’s Essence

Clever Controls

Investing In Index Funds: A Tangible Reward of Overcoming Bias

Bad Balance Bias

Raging Memories

Calibration in chess

They’re Telling You They’re Lying!

On Lying

Gullible Then Skeptical

How Biases Save Us From Giving in to Terrorism

Privacy rights and cognitive bias

Conspiracy Believers

Blogging Doubts

Radical Research Evaluation

Looking for a Hard-Headed Blogger

Goals and plans in decision making

7/7/07 Weddings

Just Take The Average

Two More Things to Unlearn from School

Introducing Ramone

Tell Your Anti-Story

Reviewing Caplan’s Reviewers

How should unproven findings be publicized?

Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?

What is “Public” Info?

Take Our Survey

Let’s Bet on Talk

What Signals What?

Reply to “Libertarian Optimism Bias …”

Biased Birth Rates

Libertarian Optimism Bias vs. Statist Pessimism Bias

Painfully Honest

Biased Revenge?

The Road Not Taken

Open Thread

Biases are Fattening

True Love and Unicorns

Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative?

Extraordinary Physics

Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?

How to be Radical

Fair Landowner Coffee

Death Risk Biases

Correspondence Bias

Applaud Info, Not Agreement

Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t

Adam Smith on Overconfidence

Ethics, Applied Vs. Meta

Wandering Philosophers

Randomly Review Criminal Cases

Functional Is Not Optimal

Were people better off in the middle ages than they are now?

Selling Overcoming Bias

Tell Me Your Politics and I Can Tell You What You Think About Nanotechnology

Beware Neuroscience Stories

Against Free Thinkers

1, 2, 3, Infinity

Total vs. marginal effects, or, Are the overall benefits of health care “probably minor”?

One reason why plans are good

200,000 Visits

Choose: Credit or Influence

Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Hughes

Odd Kid Names

Uncovering Rational Irrationalities

Blind Elites

Blind Winners

Disagreement Case Study: Hanson and Cutler

Why Not Pre-Debate Talk?

Nutritional Prediction Markets

Progress Is Not Enough

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton prediction market?

Shock Response Futures

Free Money, Going Fast

Arrogance as Virtue

Are any Human Cognitive Biases Genetically Universal?

Hofstadter’s Law

The Agency Problem

My Podcast with Russ Roberts

Truly Worth Honoring

Scientists as Parrots

In Obscurity Errors Remain

Requesting Honesty

Winning at Rock-Paper-Scissors

Policy Tug-O-War

Why Pretty HS Play Leads?

The Perils of Being “Clearer than Truth”

When Differences Make A Difference

You Felt *Sorry* for Her?

Do androids dream of electric rabbit feet?

One Life Against the World

Cheating as Status Symbol

Underconfident Experts?

Are Almost All Investors Biased?

Data Management

Are Any Human Cognitive Biases Genetic?

Is Your Rationality on Standby?


Opinions of the Politically Informed

The case for dangerous testing

I Had the Same Idea as David Brin! (Sort Of)

RAND Experiment II Petition

Scope Insensitivity

Medicine As Scandal

The U.S. Should Bet Against Iran Testing a Nuclear Weapon

Medicare Train Wreck

Eclipsing Nobel

What Speaks Silence?

The Worst You’ve Seen Isn’t the Worst There Is

RAND Health Insurance Experiment II

The Conspiracy Glitch

Doubting Thomas and Pious Pete

RAND Health Insurance Experiment

Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism

Cold Fusion Continues

Feel Lucky Punk?

The Third Alternative

Academics Against Evangelicals

Race Bias of NBA Refs

Brave US TV News, Not

Beware the Unsurprised

Academic Self-Interest Bias

The bias in “please” and “thank you”

Social Norms Need Neutrality, Simplicity

Think Like Reality

Overcoming Bias on The Simpsons

EH Hunt helped LBJ Kill JFK?

Myth of the Rational Academic

Today Is Honesty Day

More On Future Self Paternalism

Universal Law

Universal Fire

The Fallacy Fallacy

To Learn or Credential?

Feeling Rational

Overconfidence Erases Doc Advantage

The Bleeding Edge of Innovation

Expert At Versus Expert On

Meta Majoritarianism

Future Self Paternalism

Popularity Is Random

Holocaust Denial

Exercise Sizzle Works Sans Steak

The Shame of Tax Loopholing

Vonnegut on Overcoming Fiction

Consolidated Nature of Morality Thread

Irrationality or Gustibus?

Your Rationality is My Business

Statistical inefficiency = bias, or, Increasing efficiency will reduce bias (on average), or, There is no bias-variance tradeoff

New Improved Lottery

Overconfident Evaluation

Lotteries: A Waste of Hope

Just A Smile?

Priors as Mathematical Objects

Predicting the Future with Futures

The Future is Glamorous

Marginally Zero-Sum Efforts


Futuristic Predictions as Consumable Goods

Suggested Posts

Modular Argument

“Inductive Bias”

Debiasing as Non-Self-Destruction

Overcoming bias – what is it good for?

As Good As It Gets

Driving While Red

Media Bias

Could Gambling Save Science?

Casanova on Innocence

Black swans from the future

Having to Do Something Wrong

Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People

A Tough Balancing Act

Mapping Academia

The Majority Is Always Wrong

Overcoming Fiction

The Error of Crowds

Do moral systems have to make sense?

Useful Statistical Biases

Big Issues vs Small Issues

Tolstoy on Patriotism

“Statistical Bias”

Explain Your Wins

Beware of Information Porn

Info Has No Trend

Tsuyoku vs. the Egalitarian Instinct

Libertarian Purity Duels

Tsuyoku Naritai! (I Want To Become Stronger)

Reporting Chains Swallow Extraordinary Evidence

Self-deception: Hypocrisy or Akrasia?

The Very Worst Kind of Bias

Home Sweet Home Bias

Norms of Reason and the Prospects for Technologies and Policies of Debiasing

Useful bias

Chronophone Motivations

Archimedes’s Chronophone

Masking Expert Disagreement

Morality of the Future

Moral Progress and Scope of Moral Concern

Awareness of Intimate Bias

All Ethics Roads Lead To Ours?

Challenges of Majoritarianism

Classic Bias Doubts

Philosophical Majoritarianism

Useless Medical Disclaimers

Arguments and Duels

Believing in Todd

Ideologues or Fools?

Bias caused by fear of Islamic extremists

Bias on Self-Control Bias

Multipolar disagreements (Hal’s religious quandry)

Superstimuli and the Collapse of Western Civilization

Good News Only Please

Blue or Green on Regulation?

100,000 Visits

Disagreement Case Study: Robin Hanson and David Balan

The Trouble With Track Records

Disagreement Case Study – Balan and I

Moral Dilemmas, Criticism, & Plumping

The Scales of Justice, the Notebook of Rationality

None Evil or All Evil?

Biases, by and large

Disagreement Case Study – Hawk Bias

Overcome Cognitive Bias with Multiple Selves

Extreme Paternalism

Learn From Politicians’ Personal Failings

Whose Framing?

Who Are The God Experts?

Bias Against Introverts?

Paternal policies fight cognitive bias, slash information costs, and privelege responsible subselves

The Fog of Disagreement

Burch’s Law

Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!!

Rational Agent Paternalism

The “Give Us More Money” Bias

White-collar crime and moral freeloading

Happy Capital Day

Outlandish Pundits

Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided

Romantic Predators

Swinging for the Fences when You Should Bunt

Paternalism Is About Bias

You Are Not Hiring the Top 1%

Morality or Manipulation?

Accountable Financial Regulation

Medical Study Biases

This Is My Dataset. There Are Many Datasets Like It, but This One Is Mine. . .

Professors Progress Like Ads Advise

Marginally Revolved Biases

Calibrate Your Ad Response

Disagreement Case Studies

Just Lose Hope Already

Less Biased Memories

Think Frequencies, Not Probabilities

Fig Leaf Models

Do We Get Used to Stuff, But Not Friends?

Buss on True Love

Is Overcoming Bias Male?

Bias in the Classroom

How paranoid should I be? The limits of ‘overcoming bias’.

Evidence-Based Medicine Backlash

Politics is the Mind-Killer

Disagreement on Inflation

Moderate Moderation

Bias Toward Certainty

Selection Bias in Economic Theory

Induce Presidential Candidates to Take IQ Tests

crackpot people and crackpot ideas

Press Confirms Your Health Fears

Too Many Loner Theorists?

Words for Love and Sex

It’s Sad When Bad Ideas Drive Out Good Ones

Truth is stranger than fiction

Posterity Review Comes Cheap

Reputation Commitment Mechanism

More Lying

Is Truth in the Hump or the Tails?

What Opinion Game Do We Play?

Philip Tetlock’s Long Now Talk

The More Amazing Penn

When are weak clues uncomfortable?

Detecting Lies

How and When to Listen to the Crowd

Institutions as Levers

Will Blog Posts Get Credit?

Needed: Cognitive forensics?

Control Variables Avoid Bias

Dare to Deprogram Me?

Bias and Health Care

Just World Bias and Inequality

Subduction Phrases

What Evidence in Silence or Confusion?

Gender Profiling

Unequal Inequality

Academic Tool Overconfidence?

Why are there No Comforting Words that Aren’t also Factual Statements?

Prizes versus Grants

Wanted: A Meta-Poll

Excess Signaling Example


Against Admirable Activities

Effects of Ideological Media Persuasion

Galt on Abortion and Bias

The Procrastinator’s Clock

Keeping score

Agree With Young Duplicate

Sick of Textbook Errors

Manipulating Jury Biases

What Insight in Innocence?

On Policy, Fact Experts Ignore Facts

The Butler Did It, of Course!

No Death of a Buyerman

Is There Such a Thing as Bigotry?

Moby Dick Seeks Thee Not!

Morale Markets vs Decision Markets

Follow Your Passion, From A Distance

A Model of Extraordinary Claims

Socially Influenced Beliefs

Agree with Yesterday’s Duplicate

Outside the Laboratory

Symmetry Is Not Pretty

Some Claims Are Just Too Extraordinary

Women’s Mathematical Abilities

Benefits of Cost-Benefit Analyis

Godless Professors

How to Not Spend Money

Sometimes the Facts are Irrelevant

70 For Me, 30 For You

Some People Just Won’t Quit

Statistical Discrimination is (Probably) Bad

Smoking Warning Labels

Conclusion-Blind Review

Is More Information Always Better?

Should we Defer to Secret Evidence?

Peaceful Speculation

Supping with the Devil

Disagree with Suicide Rock

Biased Courtship

Reject Your Personality’s Politics

Epidemics are 98% Below Average

Bias not a bug but a feature?

A game for self-Calibration?

Why Allow Referee Bias?

Disagreement at Thoughts, Arguments and Rants

Hobgoblins of Voter Minds

How Are We Doing?

Avoiding Truth

Conspicuous Consumption of Info

We Can’t Foresee To Disagree

Do Biases Favor Hawks?

Convenient Bias Theories

Fair betting odds and Prediction Market prices

The cognitive architecture of bias

All Bias is Signed

Two Cheers for Ignoring Plain Facts

What if Everybody Overcame Bias?

Discussions of Bias in answers to the Edge 2007 Question

Why Don’t the Young Learn from the Old?

The Coin Guessing Game

A Honest Doctor, Sort Of