Discover more from Overcoming Bias
Here is a paper showing the potential practical utility of detecting and reducing biases: Confirmation bias in criminal investigations by O’Brien and Ellsworth. In an experiment subjects read a police file and were asked halfway through about their hypotheses of who the murderer was; practically everybody named the obvious suspect. On completing the entire file, where a second and stronger suspect emerges in the later half, they still tended to suspect the first guy. In a second experiment the subjects were asked to generate counter-hypotheses about why their suspect might be innocent, and this reduced the confirmation bias.
Another troubling source of bias is false confessions triggered by this confirmation bias and then strongly supporting the erroneous conclusion. The Psychology of Confessions by Kassin and Gudjonsson reviews this. During the preinterrogation review police, believing themselves to be better at detecting deception than they are, tend to confidently make false positive detections of deception in innocent people. Once they have convinced themselves they have caught a suspect a police interrogation then becomes guilt-presumptive and rather effective in generating false confessions, in particular in cognitively challenged people. And finally, juries and judges are easily convinced by the confessions.
Nothing of this may be total news to anybody on this blog, but it is still rather worrying how strong biases are accepted in police investigations and the legal system. Maybe the counter-hypothesis trick at least could be made part of police procedure: at certain points during investigations the investigators have to state possible disconfirming hypotheses for the record.
The Butler Did It, of Course!
They provide an excellent guide. It's very simple and straight to the point. Great job.
Karen
I read your Blogs and thought you may find this story interesting. This Book Changed my mind about the Death Penalty and a lot of other issues.. I feel the more people know about these issues maybe some things will change. At one time I wrote this about the book I read.... Who And Where Is Dennis Fritz, You may say after reading John Grisham's Wonderful Book "The Innocent man", Grisham's First non-fiction book. The Other Innocent Man hardly mentioned in "The Innocent Man" has his own compelling and fascinating story to tell in "Journey Toward Justice". John Grisham endorsed Dennis Fritz's Book on the Front Cover. Dennis Fritz wrote his Book Published by Seven Locks Press, to bring awareness about False Convictions, and The Death Penalty. "Journey Toward Justice" is a testimony to the Triumph of the Human Spirit and is a Stunning and Shocking Memoir. Dennis Fritz was wrongfully convicted of murder after a swift trail. The only thing that saved him from the Death Penalty was a lone vote from a juror. "The Innocent Man" by John Grisham is all about Ronnie Williamson, Dennis Fritz's was his co-defendant. Ronnie Williamson was sentenced to the Death Penalty. Both were exonerated after spending 12 years in prison. Both Freed by a simple DNA test, The real killer was one of the Prosecution's Key Witness. John Grisham's "The Innocent Man" tells half the story. Dennis Fritz's Story needs to be heard. Read about how he wrote hundreds of letters and appellate briefs in his own defense and immersed himself in an intense study of law. He was a school teacher and a ordinary man from Ada Oklahoma, whose wife was brutally murdered in 1975. On May 8, 1987 while raising his young daughter alone, he was put under arrest and on his way to jail on charges of rape and murder. Since then, it has been a long hard road filled with twist and turns. Dennis Fritz is now on his "Journey Toward Justice". He never blamed the Lord and solely relied on his faith in God to make it through. He waited for God's time and never gave up