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In his blog post on Libertarian Paternalism Judge Richard Posner writes:
The dangers of smoking are well known; indeed, they tend to be exaggerated–including by smokers. (The increased risk of lung cancer from smoking is smaller than most people believe.)
Does this mean that government mandated warning labels on cigarettes should read "Smoking is probably not as dangerous as you think."
Smoking Warning Labels
Current link: http://www.becker-posner-bl...
I agree that if the goal were to give the most accurate information to individuals based on the statistically established expectation what they think and assuming that they will evaluate this information rationally in order to fix their perception of the risk and adjust their behavior, James' labels would be exactly correct.
In the real world, however, there are other factors that influence what should be on the labels. Combining various contributions here and above, the correct label would probably say:
"Smoking is probably not as dangerous as you think. However, you - the average consumer - probably overestimate the importance of your good feelings in the short term in comparison with your long-term possible problems with smoking. This could lead us to justify a harsher warning than what can be justified by science. However, there are other factors involved, such as profits of our company that are good for the global economy, which is why we finally recommend you to try the taste of America anyway. Enjoy it - greetings from the CEO and the health secretaries." ;-)