Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Here are the contract specific rules as stated on Intrade. --------------------For this contract to settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) the following conditions must be met:

1. The study must be first reported on or after July 10th, 20072. The study must find that women talk exactly 10% or more then men over a typical whole day3. The study must include more then just university students, but need not include university students

This contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the next study finds that women do not talk exactly 10% or more then men.-------------------

I suspect that the point 2. above has been misstated, or at least sounds ambigous. More precise statements could be that -... women talk exactly 10% or more in excess of men ... or,... women talk exactly 110% as much as men or more ...

You should also add restrictions as to what sample size, and/or level of statistical significance would be considered acceptable for settling this contract.

Expand full comment
Robin Hanson's avatar

Mark, how many words people say per minute of conversation and how many words they say per day sound like very different questions to me - the difference of course being: how many minutes a day do people converse?

Expand full comment
12 more comments...

No posts