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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

It might not be all that relevant, but the best piece on "shock therapy" I've read is Comparing Apples. Usually Russia is the only country discussed, but as that points out, it is something of an out-lier when it comes to its development after the fall of the USSR. The term shock therapy originally came from other former Soviet countries, but it didn't become well known until Russia tried to imitate them.

This post has pretty much been copied from other ones I made at gnxp and Sailer, which I was reminded of by the mention of Aslund, who tries to defend his reputation with regard to Russia here.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

You make a good point. What if you were to weight individual judgments by the the judge's own "truthiness" rating for past claims (i.e. their NAV value)? I can see a bootstrap issue, but here's a proposed process: For phase one we only allow Futures claims (not Currents). During this phase, a base of expert predictors emerges. Phase two, we introduce Currents (which are more subjective), but at this point the experts will have a voice commensurate with their track record on prediction. Judges that are new to the system start with a baseline but can build a reputation over time.

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