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One reason why plans are good

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One reason why plans are good

Anders Sandberg
Jun 12, 2007
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One reason why plans are good

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One of the small puzzles of decision analysis is that:

(a) Plans have lots of problems–things commonly don’t go according to plan, plans notoriously exclude key possibilities that the planner didn’t think of, plans can encourage tunnel vision, etc.  But . . .

(b) Plans are helpful.  In fact, it’s hard to do much of anything useful without a plan.  (I’m sure people will come up with counterexamples here, but certainly in my own work and life, not much happens if I don’t plan it.  Serentipitous encounters are fine but don’t add up to much.

Beyond this, one could add that economic activity seems to work well with minimal planning (just enough structure and rules to set up "the marketplace") but individual actors plan, and need to plan, all the time.

This puzzle is particularly interesting to me as I do work in applied decision analysis.

So what’s the solution to the puzzle?

I don’t really have a solution, but in talking with Dave Krantz yesterday I thought of one advantage of plans, even bad plans.  Suppose you have a particular goal and are setting up a plan, considering two decision options, A or B.  According to the plan, decision A will work by first implementing step 1, then step 2.  Decision B will work by first implementing step x, then step y.  Graphically:

option A –> 1 –> 2 –> Goal
option B –> x –> y –> Goal

This plan may have problems, but it clearly sets up the roles of 1,2,x,y.  Without the plan, it could be easy to hold both A and B in your mind simultaneously, blurring the distinction.  In particular, it could be easy to vaguely imagine that you could do step 1, then step y.

To summarize:  one advantage of a plan is it enforces a certain logical consistency and can clarify the relations between intermediate steps.

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One reason why plans are good

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Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

Having been in the business world a while, my experience has been that the organism (employee) changes to adapt to various cultures and/or experiences in the workplace. For example, a normally introverted person who takes a job that forces him or her to interact regularly with the public (as in marketing) may learn the behaviors of those who are normally more outgoing, but then retreat into introvert mode when not on the job. However, if these behaviors are percieved by that individual as empowering, they may be carried out while at home as well.

Perhaps the person wielding the power (in a negative fashion) has a problem with self-esteem, and so needs to make others feel less powerful in order to elevate himself or herself. If this person percieves that others willingly comply when in this mode, then it is reinforced and it continues. If the person is in the egoist mode, attempts to affirm that person while making counter-arguments to their power, may not be able to connect.

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Robin Hanson
May 15

So, to see things better from the point of view of many, try imagining yourself having very little power.

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