Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?
Skeptics accuse Believers of 9 cognitive biases. Believers and Skeptics mutually accuse each other of 4 more. Why don’t Believers accuse Skeptics of any others?
Skeptics accuse Believers of:
Overconfidence — in the predictions of their computer models.
Hindsight Bias — Because the computer models have (admittedly) been tweaked to post-dict past cimate changes, Believers assume wrongly that past climate events were more ‘predictable’ than they really were, according to Skeptics.
Illusion of Control — Believers think that human reductions of greenhouse gases will make a large enough contribution to reduce global warming, but Skeptics think that’s an illusion.
Loss Aversion, exacerbated by Endowment Effects — Skeptics claim Believers overestimate the costs of warming (compared to the benefits).
Availability Bias with Focusing Effects — due to the vividness of climate catastrophe scenarios.
Mutual accusations include:
Ad Hominem claims — by Believers that Skeptics are beholden to oil company money: by Skeptics that Believers are seeking grant money, are anti-capitalist, anti-corporation, anti-free trade, anti-development/growth, anti-consumer, or are socialist, communist, anarchist, etc.
Status Quo Bias — Skeptics claim Believers want to keep the climate stabilized at its present level, and Believers claim Skeptics want stability for present manufacturing processes, distribution of wealth, SUVs, etc.
Confirmation/Disconfirmation biases — leading to irrational belief persistence
Finally, I accuse the whole gang of subjection to Polarization Effects.
But where are the Believers’ accusations of bias in the Skeptics?
CBS 4 Reporter Shomari Stone was praised on the “Schnitt Show,” a syndicated, moderately conservative talk-show, for his ground-breaking report on "Global Warming." ( http://cbs4.com/video/?id=3... )
South Florida affiliate station 610 WIOD airs the show from 3:00pm to 6:00pm, Monday - Friday. On average, host Todd Schnitt has an estimated 800,000 listening audience across the country after scoring a huge deal XM Satellite radio.
The Schnitt Show began praising Shomari Stone on Monday, May 21, 2007 at 4:00pm about his report on Global Warming.
Schnitt said, “I have to give credit where credit is due. I have to highlight this individual. I am taking the time to reach out to a reporter, Shomari Stone, in Miami, he’s a CBS 4 WFOR reporter. Shomari did a news story on Global Warming. Instead of asking Hurricane Expert Dr. William Gray about hurricanes, he did a story about how Dr. Gray says humans ARE NOT causing global warming.” “Shomari Stone dared to expose the other side. He had the cahoonays.”
“I have no idea what Shomari’s position is personally. I have no idea. But you’ve got to hand it to him for presenting the other side of the story. A rarity. He’s good. Good job Shomari Stone. I appreciated the diligence that you put into the report." "Finally, mainstream media, has a Dr., a professor that says, wait a sec, not so fast, on this annointed reason that’s been shoved down our faces. That’s all I ask for. Is just the other side of the debate. I’m not saying Al Gore should not present his stuff in "An Inconvenient Truth." I just like both sides of an issue presented. Fantastic report! Finally I can’t tell you the last time I saw something like that. I don’t think it’s been done.”
You can watch CBS 4 Reporter Shomari Stone's Exclusive Global Warming Report by clicking or copy and pasting the following link:
http://cbs4.com/video/?id=3...
Perhaps I am confused, but isn't it possible that both Limbaugh is "right" and Lindzen is "wrong." Perhaps someone will correct me, but I had thought that Gore does not really rely on the IPCC consensus but brings up all kinds of results that assume more drastic consequences than the most likely scenario discussed by the IPCC. In that event, Limbaugh might be correct to bet with Gore, even though his bet would not challenge the IPCC. In other words, Limbaugh's challenge to Gore is less controversial than Lindzen's statement that temperatures are as likely to fall as rise.