Overcoming Bias

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Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?

www.overcomingbias.com

Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?

Bruce Britton
Jul 9, 2007
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Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?

www.overcomingbias.com

Skeptics accuse Believers of 9 cognitive biases.  Believers and Skeptics mutually accuse each other of 4 more. Why don’t Believers accuse Skeptics of any others?

Skeptics accuse Believers of:

  • Overconfidence — in the predictions of their computer models.

  • Hindsight Bias — Because the computer models have (admittedly) been tweaked to post-dict past cimate changes, Believers assume wrongly that past climate events were more ‘predictable’ than they really were, according to Skeptics. 

  • Illusion of Control — Believers think that human reductions of greenhouse gases will make a large enough contribution to reduce global warming, but Skeptics think that’s an illusion.

  • Loss Aversion, exacerbated by Endowment Effects — Skeptics claim Believers overestimate the costs of warming (compared to the benefits). 

  • Bandwagon Effects

  • Appeal to Authority Fallacy

  • Availability Bias with Focusing Effects — due to the vividness of climate catastrophe scenarios.

Mutual accusations include:

  • Ad Hominem claims —  by Believers that Skeptics are beholden to oil company money: by Skeptics that Believers are seeking grant money, are anti-capitalist, anti-corporation, anti-free trade, anti-development/growth, anti-consumer, or are socialist, communist, anarchist, etc.

  • Status Quo Bias —  Skeptics claim Believers want to keep the climate stabilized at its present level, and Believers claim Skeptics want stability for present manufacturing processes, distribution of wealth, SUVs, etc. 

  • Confirmation/Disconfirmation biases —  leading to irrational belief persistence

Finally, I accuse the whole gang of subjection to Polarization Effects. 

But where are the Believers’ accusations of bias in the Skeptics?

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Global Warming Skeptics Charge Believers with more Cognitive Biases than Believers do Skeptics: Why the asymmetry?

www.overcomingbias.com
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