Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Andrew, thanks for the quick and clear explanation. In a select environment of very positvely deviant rational analysts here on this blog, I think you stand out in the crowd. Do you share concerns about personal mortality odds (and hence general existential odds of humanity) that some other contributors and commentors of overcomingbias have? I'm thinking here of Anders Sandberg and TGGP, among others. If so, how are you attempting to maximize your personal persistence odds?

Also, have you considered maximizing offspring with women that are also the most demonstrably able to analyze and model solutions the existential threats we all face? For example, by a process of sperm and egg donation, in vitro fertilization surrogate pregnancy, and adoption, and perhaps even incentive trusts to encourage the talented members of such offspring to get an education and work in fields where they're most likely to positively impact our existential odds?

I'm asking as someone who is concerned with maximizing my personal odds of persistence, and looking for the most efficient ways to achieve that goal. Feel free to reply from an anonymous email account to lawfinals@yahoo.com if you feel the need to.

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Hopefully A.,

I don't think I had any deep point here. Sometimes we can tell people what to do--or, even more precisely, it's easier to get people to do what we want if we can first figure out what we want them to do.

What I really meant was that decision theorists such as Dave Krantz aren't in a position to tell you and me what to do. When I've taught classical decision analysis, I've told students that it does two things:(1) For well-defined utilities and uncertainties, the theory can actually tell you what to do.(2) More generally, the theory can point out inconsistencies in your decisions and preferences.

In our project in Bangladesh, and also in our earlier work in home radon remediation, we certainly aren't in a position to tell people what to do. This is one reason I think that an appropriate role for government and other outside agencies to play is to collect and analyze information that individuals can find useful.

See this discussion of personal vs. institutional decision analysis. In textbooks, decision analysis is often described in the context of personal decisions (which car should I buy, which job should I take, etc.) but I think the theory works better in institutional contexts or in settings where the analyst is not the same as the person who makes the decision.

Expand full comment
4 more comments...

No posts