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So, optimal behavior as a goalie includes staying in the center of the goal every once in a while, just to keep everyone honest. This seems a lot like poker, now that I think about it.

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Robin Hanson wrote:

This data suggests behavior is not in equilibrium here.

This is interesting. Levitt et al wrote on the same topic (available here , pdf), and came to the conclusion that keeper/kicker strategies are indeed in equilibrium (mixed, of course). They also derive the fact that kickers choose middle much more often than keepers as part of the equilibrium of the game they set up (Proposition 3(i)). Now I don't have access to the JEP paper so I can't compare it to Levitt et al's - but someone has got to have their payoff matrix wrong. Maybe both.

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