Discover more from Overcoming Bias
The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an ancient evil remarked by the philosophers and moralists of all ages. Their absurd presumption in their own good fortune, has been less taken notice of. It is, however, if possible, still more universal. There is no man living who, when in tolerable health and spirits, has not some share of it. The chance of gain is by every man more or less over-valued, and the chance of loss is by most men under-valued, and by scarce any man, who is in tolerable health and spirits, valued more than it is worth. …
The contempt of risk and the presumptuous hope of success, are in no period of life more active than at the age at which young people chuse their professions. How little the fear of misfortune is then capable of balancing the hope of good luck, appears still more evidently in the readiness of the common people to enlist as soldiers, or to go to sea, than in the eagerness of those of better fashion to enter into what are called the liberal professions.
Adam Smith, An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter 10, paragraphs 29 and 32. (Hat tip to Econtalk.)
Adam Smith on Overconfidence
I think eddie is right in seeing preferences in risk seeking and I don't find this citation of Adam Smith very insigthful. A lot of these soldiers and seamen would have been second or third sons of the large families of the time, who would not have inherited land or their father's profession. Sons from the small families of our time (in Europe & US) do not seek risk in the same scale.
Keith Elis, you have to calculate the cost of the calls and the benefit of the sale. If each sale is worth a lot and each call is essentially cost-less (which e-mail spam is) it could be perfectly rational.