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Robin Hanson's avatar

Rcriii, we are just talking about inference; each person listens and then concludes that it is rational to change his mind.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

So what is the mechanism for the random walk? Say for example I tell my younger self that he should do more of activity X, and he replies that even after evaluating my 20 years of history he is unwilling to put more time or effort into X. How do we resolve this?

Do we roll dice? Flip coins? Bid with bias ("I say you have a 20% stubborness bias" "I'll see your 20% and raise you 10% for your obvious cynicism" ...)?

With a negotiation, if there is bias to the process (I'm more manipulative, or you have better info, etc), won't Bayesians try to account for that?

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