Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Douglas, if you have a probability distribution over "impossible possible worlds" and treat the presentation of the proof as evidence causing an update, then it is possible a bounded rationalist could avoid the conjunction fallacy in that sense. The very question itself would act as a kind of evidence about logical truths.

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

D. Knight, I believe we just cross-posted, but I believe that my post is a more explicit example of what could be happening. Essentially, I am trying to argue that the presentation of A and B should increase your perception of the probability of B if in your previous calculation, you had not considered event A as a possible subset of all events leading to the occurrence of B.

Expand full comment
13 more comments...

No posts