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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Fools Gold: Good point, but mighn't the preknowledge of these biases prevent one from going to the casino at all, thus overcoming the effects of these biases without actually activating them?

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

"...My favorite offsetting set of biases is the Gambler's fallacy, the notion that the law of averages has memory to induce negative correlations, countered by the "hot streak" fallacy, the notion that success breeds success, which induces positive correlation. ..."

And just as a proverb does not necessarily influence either thought processes or behavior, the cognitive biases of Gambler's Fallacy or "Hot Streak" exist in someone who is already at the gambling tables, already has a stack of chips, a free drink and a beautiful woman. To the extent that either fallacy pops into the gambler's mind, its likely to be selectively employed but most probably after the event!

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