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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Robin, if the markets rise on average they may jsut be afraid of a black swan. Given this possibility, how can you see an average rise and conclude bias?

Also, am I correct to understand from your response to Paul that basic information theory does not allow for the information itself to be valued? Having information about a car from an ad reduces the information gathering costs associated with buying that car, and therefore should on average lead to an increase in its perceived value. Why is this wrong?

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Robin Hanson's avatar

Jeff, there are different ways that an uncertainty might be resolved; the news could be good or bad. It would be a bias if they stock were to rise no matter how the uncertainty was resolved.

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