Overcoming Bias

Share this post

InTrade Nominee Advice

www.overcomingbias.com

InTrade Nominee Advice

Robin Hanson
Oct 24, 2007
Share this post

InTrade Nominee Advice

www.overcomingbias.com

For the top four US presidential candidates from each party, InTrade.com gives these chances of nomination, becoming president, and the implied conditional chance of winning if nominated:

Oct23odds_2

Al Gore’s conditional chances seem way out of line to me.  And Ron Paul’s conditional chances are suspiciously large compared to the other Republicans.

Added: What good are estimates that could be better?  I know of no other source of daily-updated estimates with even a similar accuracy.  And here anyone can be paid to fix any errors they find.

Share this post

InTrade Nominee Advice

www.overcomingbias.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing