Discover more from Overcoming Bias
InTrade Nominee Advice
For the top four US presidential candidates from each party, InTrade.com gives these chances of nomination, becoming president, and the implied conditional chance of winning if nominated:
Al Gore’s conditional chances seem way out of line to me. And Ron Paul’s conditional chances are suspiciously large compared to the other Republicans.
Added: What good are estimates that could be better? I know of no other source of daily-updated estimates with even a similar accuracy. And here anyone can be paid to fix any errors they find.