Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I wonder if there is not a social biology expiation for the tendency of speakers to overstate their certainty. One could argue that in a small hunter gather tribe, in a crises situation, a decisive response presented the best chance for survival. Indeed, almost any decisive action, for example fight or flee, is preferable to indecision. Groups who followed leaders who were decisive had a greeter chance of survival. Leaders either did not see alternatives or believed that the verbalization of alternatives would be correlated with indecisiveness. As a result we are more “comfortable” with a leader (politician or doctor) who talks in terms of certainty, even when we understand intellectually that there is no certainty.

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

"Question Authority" - I haven't found the original source.

"Don't pamper yourself, question your own beliefs as relentlessly as you question authority." - William Swift

I have found the best way to keep from falling for any sort of false information is to be skeptical, and to be more skeptical when I would prefer it to be true. Always be most skeptical of what you most want to be true.

Expand full comment
10 more comments...

No posts