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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I tried to follow your proof in the paper. I think I understand the math, but maybe there is some notation that I have misunderstood.

Firstly, what's up with not numbering all your equations? That is just rude to anyone trying to comment on you paper.

Secondly, what happens between the fist and second equation in the proof of Theorem 1? I understand how you arrive at the fist equation of the proof of Theorem 1. But the next equation seems wrong to me.

If start from the second equation of the proof of Theorem 1, and then you take out X from the sum on the left hand side (since X is a constant in that sum), and then divide by the remaining sum, so that you get only X on the left hand side. (Same as how you got the previous equation, only backwards.) Then you end up with:

E[V|I(w*)] = E[V|(I and J)(w*)]

and that does not look right?

What is going on here? What am I misunderstanding?

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Robin Hanson's avatar

Barkley, yes, in a large space beliefs need not converge with evidence. But my result has nothing to do with whether beliefs converge with evidence; it should apply to the situations you describe as well.

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