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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Pascal's wager could fit in here, with the exception that he made the reasoning explicit.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Contrarian Research - I pursue some research ideas most people think unlikely, but which I think have promise. When I take an outside view, looking at the track record of similarly contrarian ideas, I have to admit that the odds are far against them. But when I take an inside view, thinking about my reasons for them, and which variations I should focus on, I quickly move to a mental mode where they seem quite likely to be vindicated. This makes sense if most of the benefits to me of pursuing these ideas occur in scenarios where my instincts are right, and they are in fact great ideas.

Interesting. You tend to criticize Caplan for his contrarian views. It seems to me he might defend himself as you have.

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