Sitemap - 2008 - Overcoming Bias
“It is Simply No Longer Possible to Believe”
‘Futarchy’ is NYT Buzzword of ’08
Prolegomena to a Theory of Fun
Entrepreneurs Are Not Overconfident
For The People Who Are Still Alive
Bay Area Meetup Wed 12/10 @8pm
Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc.
Artificial Mysterious Intelligence
Friendly Projects vs. Products
Permitted Possibilities, & Locality
Beliefs Require Reasons, or: Is the Pope Catholic? Should he be?
Engelbart: Insufficiently Recursive
The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Ad Hominem
Physicists Held To Lower Standard
When Life Is Cheap, Death Is Cheap
Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff
Animal experimentation: morally acceptable, or just the way things always have been?
Boston-area Meetup: 11/18/08 9pm MIT/Cambridge
The Weighted Majority Algorithm
Back Up and Ask Whether, Not Why
Hanging Out My Speaker’s Shingle
BHTV: Jaron Lanier and Yudkowsky
Economic Definition of Intelligence?
Efficient Cross-Domain Optimization
San Jose Meetup, Sat 10/25 @ 7:30pm
Howard Stern on Voter Rationalization
Toilets Aren’t About Not Dying of Disease
Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies
Ends Don’t Justify Means (Among Humans)
Shut up and do the impossible!
Terror Politics Isn’t About Policy
Political Parties are not about Policy
No Rose-Colored Dating Glasses
The Magnitude of His Own Folly
Friedman’s “Prediction vs. Explanation”
Bank Politics Is Not About Bank Policy
Give it to Me Straight! I Swear I Won’t be Mad!
Fighting a Rearguard Action Against the Truth
Correcting Biases Once You’ve Identified Them
How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?
The Sheer Folly of Callow Youth
‘Anyone who thinks the Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world is a t**t.’
The Truly Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma
Qualitative Strategies of Friendliness
Cowen-Hanson Bloggingheads Topics?
Randomised Controlled Trials of Parachutes
Good Medicine in Merry Old England
You Provably Can’t Trust Yourself
The Cartoon Guide to Löb’s Theorem
Bias in Real Life: A Personal Story
When Anthropomorphism Became Stupid
The Bedrock of Morality: Arbitrary?
Self-Indication Solves Time-Asymmetry
Schelling and the Nuclear Taboo
Moral Error and Moral Disagreement
Doctor, There are Two Kinds of “No Evidence”
Suspiciously Vague LHC Forecasts
Sorting Pebbles Into Correct Heaps
The Problem at the Heart of Pascal’s Wager
Inseparably Right; or, Joy in the Merely Good
Bias against some types of foreign wives
Where Does Pascal’s Wager Fail?
About the Future of Humanity Institute
Intrade’s Conditional Prediction Markets
Gary Taubes, “Good Calories, Bad Calories”
Does Your Morality Care What You Think?
Math is Subjunctively Objective
When (Not) To Use Probabilities
Fake Norms, or “Truth” vs. Truth
Bias in Political Conversation
Probability is Subjectively Objective
Where Recursive Justification Hits Bottom
BloggingHeads Hanson & Wilkinson
Distraction Overcomes Moral Hypocrisy
Overcoming Our Vs. Others’ Biases
Experience Increases Overconfidence
What Would You Do Without Morality?
Caution Kills When Fighting Malaria
No Universally Compelling Arguments
The Design Space of Minds-In-General
The Psychological Unity of Humankind
Eliezer’s Meta-Level Determinism
Optimization and the Singularity
Surface Analogies and Deep Causes
History of Transition Inequality
What is the probability of the Large Hadron Collider destroying the universe?
Causality and Moral Responsibility
Quantum Mechanics and Personal Identity
And the Winner is… Many-Worlds!
Quantum Physics Revealed As Non-Mysterious
An Intuitive Explanation of Quantum Mechanics
Prediction Market Based Electoral Map Forecast
Eliezer’s Post Dependencies; Book Notification; Graphic Designer Wanted
The Future of Oil Prices 3: Nonrenewable Resource Pricing
Bloggingheads: Yudkowsky and Horgan
Mach’s Principle: Anti-Epiphenomenal Physics
Conference on Global Catastrophic Risks
Changing the Definition of Science
No Safe Defense, Not Even Science
Do Scientists Already Know This Stuff?
Lobbying for Prediction Markets
Science Doesn’t Trust Your Rationality
The Dilemma: Science or Bayes?
Condemned to Repeat Finance Past
Decoherence is Falsifiable and Testable
Spooky Action at a Distance: The No-Communication Theorem
Bell’s Theorem: No EPR “Reality”
Where Experience Confuses Physicists
Where Physics Meets Experience
Early Scientists Chose Influence Over Credit
Which Basis Is More Fundamental?
The So-Called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
Identity Isn’t In Specific Atoms
Kids, Parents Disagree on Spouses
Classical Configuration Spaces
Can You Prove Two Particles Are Identical?
Where Philosophy Meets Science
Belief in the Implied Invisible
The Generalized Anti-Zombie Principle
Brain Breakthrough! It’s Made of Neurons!
To Spread Science, Keep It Secret
Ancient Political Self-Deception
Fantasy and Reality: Substitutes or Complements?
Is Humanism A Religion-Substitute?
Amazing Breakthrough Day: April 1st
New York OB Meetup (ad-hoc) on Monday, Mar 24, @6pm
If You Demand Magic, Magic Won’t Help
Biases in Processing Political Information
Boards of Advisors Don’t Advise, Do Board
Explaining vs. Explaining Away
Distinguish Info, Analysis, Belief, Action
The Quotation is not the Referent
Neglecting Conceptual Research
37 Ways That Words Can Be Wrong
Human Capital “Puzzle” Explained?
Words as Mental Paintbrush Handles
Framing problems as separate from people
Conditional Independence, and Naive Bayes
The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition
Superexponential Conceptspace, and Simple Words
Mutual Information, and Density in Thingspace
If Self-Fulfilling Optimism is Wrong, I Don’t Wanna be Right
The Public Intellectual Plunge
Relative vs. Absolute Rationality
Replace the Symbol with the Substance
Classic Sichuan in Millbrae, Thu Feb 21, 7pm
The Argument from Common Usage
How An Algorithm Feels From Inside
The Cluster Structure of Thingspace
Typicality and Asymmetrical Similarity
Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace
OB Meetup: Millbrae, Thu 21 Feb, 7pm
Newcomb’s Problem and Regret of Rationality
Deliberative Prediction Markets — A Reply
Deliberation in Prediction Markets
Predictocracy — A Preliminary Response
The “Intuitions” Behind “Utilitarianism”
Mandatory Sensitivity Training Fails
Antidepressant Publication Bias
Leading bias researcher turns out to be… biased, renounces result
Don’t Choose a President the Way You’d Choose an Assistant Regional Manager
More Presidential Decision Markets!
Experiencing The Endowment Effect
But There’s Still A Chance, Right?
Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych
Yes, it can be rational to vote in presidential elections
The American System and Misleading Labels
Some structural biases of the political system