Sitemap - 2008 - Overcoming Bias

A New Day

Against Interesting Details

Dunbar’s Function

Amputation of Destiny

The Meta-Human Condition

“It is Simply No Longer Possible to Believe”

Friendship is Relative

Can’t Unbirth a Child

Nonsentient Bloggers

Nonsentient Optimizers

Nonperson Predicates

Alien Bad Guy Bias

Devil’s Offers

Harmful Options

The Longshot Bias

Imaginary Positions

Coherent Futures

Rationality Quotes 20

No Overconfidence?

Show-Off Bias

Living By Your Own Strength

Sensual Experience

Presuming Bets are Bad

‘Futarchy’ is NYT Buzzword of ’08

Experts Are For Certainty

Complex Novelty

High Challenge

Weak Social Theories

Christmas Signaling

Prolegomena to a Theory of Fun

The Right Thing

Who Cheers The Referee?

Visualizing Eutopia

I’ll Think of a Reason Later

Tyler on Cryonics

Not Taking Over the World

Entrepreneurs Are Not Overconfident

Distrusting Drama

For The People Who Are Still Alive

Trade With The Future

BHTV: de Grey and Yudkowsky

Hated Because It Might Work

Cryonics Is Cool

You Only Live Twice

We Agree: Get Froze

What I Think, If Not Why

What Core Argument?

The linear-scaling error

The Mechanics of Disagreement

Two Visions Of Heritage

Bay Area Meetup Wed 12/10 @8pm

Are AIs Homo Economicus?

Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc.

The Bad Guy Bias

True Sources of Disagreement

US TV Censorship

Wrapping Up

Artificial Mysterious Intelligence

False false dichotomies

Shared AI Wins

Is That Your True Rejection?

Friendly Projects vs. Products

Sustained Strong Recursion

Evolved Desires

Gas Arbitrage

Drexler Blogs!

Beware Hockey Stick Plans

Underconstrained Abstractions

Rationality of voting etc.

Permitted Possibilities, & Locality

The Hypocrisy-Charge Bias

Test Near, Apply Far

Hard Takeoff

Voting Kills

Whither Manufacturing?

Recursive Self-Improvement

Open Thread

I Heart CYC

Disappointment in the Future

Stuck In Throat

Singletons Rule OK

Total Tech Wars

Chaotic Inversion

Luck Pessimism

Thanksgiving Prayer

Dreams of Autarky

Modern Depressions

Total Nano Domination

Beliefs Require Reasons, or: Is the Pope Catholic? Should he be?

Engelbart: Insufficiently Recursive

Abstract/Distant Future Bias

The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Ad Hominem

Physicists Held To Lower Standard

Thinking Helps

…Recursion, Magic

When Life Is Cheap, Death Is Cheap

Polisci Stats Biased

Cascades, Cycles, Insight…

“Evicting” brain emulations

Are you dreaming?

Surprised by Brains

Billion Dollar Bots

Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff

Emulations Go Foom

Life’s Story Continues

Observing Optimization

AI Go Foom

Whence Your Abstractions?

Abstraction, Not Analogy

The First World Takeover

Setting The Stage

Cheap Wine Tastes Fine

Animal experimentation: morally acceptable, or just the way things always have been?

The Weak Inside View

Loud Subtext

Convenient Overconfidence

Failure By Affective Analogy

Failure By Analogy

Whither OB?

All Are Skill Unaware

Logical or Connectionist AI?

Friendliness Factors

Boston-area Meetup: 11/18/08 9pm MIT/Cambridge

Positive vs. Optimal

Friendly Teams

The Nature of Logic

Diamond Palace Survive?

Selling Nonapples

Engelbart As UberTool?

The Weighted Majority Algorithm

Fund UberTool?

Worse Than Random

Conformity Shows Loyalty

Lawful Uncertainty

What Belief Conformity?

Ask OB: Leaving the Fold

Depressed Not More Accurate

Lawful Creativity

Visionary News

Recognizing Intelligence

Equal Cheats

Back Up and Ask Whether, Not Why

Beware “I Believe”

Hanging Out My Speaker’s Shingle

Disagreement Debate Status?

Beware the Prescient

Today’s Inspirational Tale

The Evil Pleasure

Complexity and Intelligence

Building Something Smarter

Open Thread

BHTV: Jaron Lanier and Yudkowsky

Mundane Magic

FHI Emulation Roadmap Out

Porn vs Romance Novels

Intelligence in Economics

Does Intelligence Float?

Economic Definition of Intelligence?


Efficient Cross-Domain Optimization

Wanting To Want

Measuring Optimization Power

Transparent Characters

Aiming at the Target

Trust Us!

Belief in Intelligence

Expected Creative Surprises

Trust But Don’t Verify

San Jose Meetup, Sat 10/25 @ 7:30pm

Inner Goodness

Obama Donors As News

Which Parts Are “Me”?

If You Snooze, You Lose

Ethics Notes

Howard Stern on Voter Rationalization

Prices or Bindings?

Toilets Aren’t About Not Dying of Disease

Ethical Injunctions

Informed Voters Choose Worse

Ethical Inhibitions

Protected From Myself

Last Post Requests?

Dark Side Epistemology

Preventive Health Care

Traditional Capitalist Values

US Help Red China Revolt?

Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies

Conspiracy’s Uncanny Valley

Ends Don’t Justify Means (Among Humans)

Why Voter Drives

Election Gambling History

Why Does Power Corrupt?

Behold Our Ancestors

Rationality Quotes 19

Grateful For Bad News

The Ritual

Crisis of Faith

The Wire

AIs and Gatekeepers Unite!

Bad Faith Voter Drives

Shut up and do the impossible!

Academics in Clown Suits

Gullibility and Control

Terror Politics Isn’t About Policy

Make an Extraordinary Effort

More Deafening Silence

On Doing the Impossible

Insincere Cheers

My Bayesian Enlightenment

Political Harassment

Beyond the Reach of God

Rationality Quotes 18

Equally Shallow Genders

Open Thread

Political Parties are not about Policy

Use the Try Harder, Luke

No Rose-Colored Dating Glasses

Trying to Try

Intrade and the Dow Drop

Awww, a Zebra

The Magnitude of His Own Folly

The Hope Premium

Dangerous Species Warnings

Friedman’s “Prediction vs. Explanation”

Above-Average AI Scientists

Competent Elites

Bank Politics Is Not About Bank Policy

The Level Above Mine

Doable Green

Give it to Me Straight! I Swear I Won’t be Mad!

My Naturalistic Awakening

Pundits As Moles

Fighting a Rearguard Action Against the Truth

White Swans Painted Black

Correcting Biases Once You’ve Identified Them

That Tiny Note of Discord

Noble Lies?

Horrible LHC Inconsistency

Politics isn’t about Policy

How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?

Ban the Bear

Say It Loud

Bad News Ban Is Very Bad News

Overconfidence is Stylish

The Sheer Folly of Callow Youth

Who To Blame

A Prodigy of Refutation

Money Is Serious

Raised in Technophilia

Deafening Silence

My Best and Worst Mistake

Noble Abstention

My Childhood Death Spiral

Serious Music


Beware High Standards

Psychic Powers

Immodest Caplan

Excluding the Supernatural

Intelligent Design Honesty

Rationality Quotes 17

Election Review Articles

Points of Departure

Guiltless Victims

Singularity Summit 2008

‘Anyone who thinks the Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world is a t**t.’

Is Carbon Lost Cause?

Rationality Quotes 16

Aaronson on Singularity

Rationality Quotes 15

Hating Economists

Rationality Quotes 14

Disagreement is Disrespect

The Truly Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma

Aping Insight

The True Prisoner’s Dilemma

Mirrored Lives

Risk is Physical

Rationality Quotes 12

Open Thread

Brief Break

Dreams of Friendliness

Fake Fish

Qualitative Strategies of Friendliness

Cowen-Hanson Bloggingheads Topics?

Moral False Consensus

Harder Choices Matter Less

The Complexity Critique

Against Modal Logics

Top Teachers Ineffective

Dreams of AI Design

Top Docs No Healthier

Three Fallacies of Teleology

Use the Native Architecture

Cowen Disses Futarchy

Magical Categories

Randomised Controlled Trials of Parachutes

Unnatural Categories

Good Medicine in Merry Old England

Mirrors and Paintings

Beauty Bias

Invisible Frameworks

Dark Dreams

No License To Be Human

Are UFOs Aliens?

You Provably Can’t Trust Yourself

Caplan Gums Bullet

Dumb Deplaning

Mundane Dishonesty

The Cartoon Guide to Löb’s Theorem

Bias in Real Life: A Personal Story

When Anthropomorphism Became Stupid

Hot Air Doesn’t Disagree

Manipulators as Mirrors

The Bedrock of Morality: Arbitrary?

Is Fairness Arbitrary?

Self-Indication Solves Time-Asymmetry

Schelling and the Nuclear Taboo


New Best Game Theory

Abstracted Idealized Dynamics

Future Altruism, Not

Moral Error and Moral Disagreement

Doctor, There are Two Kinds of “No Evidence”

Suspiciously Vague LHC Forecasts

Sorting Pebbles Into Correct Heaps

The Problem at the Heart of Pascal’s Wager

Inseparably Right; or, Joy in the Merely Good

Baxter’s Flood

Morality as Fixed Computation

Our Comet Ancestors?

Hiroshima Day

The Robot’s Rebellion

Yudkowsky’s Book

Ignore Prostate Cancer

Contaminated by Optimism

Anthropology Patrons

Anthropomorphic Optimism

Now I’m Scared

Incomplete Analysis

No Logical Positivist I

Bias against some types of foreign wives

Where Does Pascal’s Wager Fail?

About the Future of Humanity Institute

The Comedy of Behaviorism

Variance-Induced Test Bias

A Genius for Destruction

Open Thread

Detached Lever Fallacy

OK, Now I’m Worried

Humans in Funny Suits

Touching Vs. Understanding

Intrade’s Conditional Prediction Markets

Interpersonal Morality

The Meaning of Right

Funding Bias

Setting Up Metaethics

Bias Against the Unseen

Changing Your Metaethics

Is Ideology About Status?

Gary Taubes, “Good Calories, Bad Calories”

Does Your Morality Care What You Think?

Refuge Markets

Math is Subjunctively Objective

Can Counterfactuals Be True?

When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Banning Bad News

Fake Norms, or “Truth” vs. Truth

Loving Loyalty

Should We Ban Physics?

Touching the Old

Existential Angst Factory

Corporate Assassins

Could Anything Be Right?

Disaster Bias

The Gift We Give To Tomorrow

World Welfare State

Whither Moral Progress?

Posting May Slow

Bias in Political Conversation

Lawrence Watt-Evans’s Fiction

Fear, God, and State

Probability is Subjectively Objective

Rebelling Within Nature

Ask For Help

Fundamental Doubts

Biases of Elite Education

The Genetic Fallacy

My Kind of Reflection

Helsinki Meetup

Poker Vs Chess

Cloud Seeding Markets

The Fear of Common Knowledge

Where Recursive Justification Hits Bottom

Artificial Volcanoes

CFTC Event Market Comment

Will As Thou Wilt

All Hail Info Theory

BloggingHeads Hanson & Wilkinson

Is Morality Given?

Is Morality Preference?

Rah My Country

Moral Complexities

2 of 10, not 3 total

Overconfident Investing

The Bedrock of Fairness

Sex, Nerds, and Entitlement

Break It Down

Why Argue Values?

I’d take it

Distraction Overcomes Moral Hypocrisy

Open Thread

Overcoming Our Vs. Others’ Biases

Created Already In Motion

Experience Increases Overconfidence

The Moral Void

What Would You Do Without Morality?

Average Your Guesses

The Opposite Sex

The Conversation So Far

Glory vs. Relations

2-Place and 1-Place Words

Caution Kills When Fighting Malaria

To What Expose Kids?

No Universally Compelling Arguments

The Design Space of Minds-In-General

Should Bad Boys Win?

The Psychological Unity of Humankind

Eliezer’s Meta-Level Determinism

Optimization and the Singularity

Tyler Vid on Disagreement

Are Meta Views Outside Views?

Surface Analogies and Deep Causes

Parsing The Parable

The Outside View’s Domain

Outside View of Singularity

Heading Toward Morality

LA-602 vs. RHIC Review

History of Transition Inequality

Britain Was Too Small

Natural Genocide

What is the probability of the Large Hadron Collider destroying the universe?

Ghosts in the Machine

Gratitude Decay

Loud Bumpers

Grasping Slippery Things

In Bias, Meta is Max

Passing the Recursive Buck

In Innovation, Meta is Max

The Ultimate Source

Possibility and Could-ness

Joe Epstein on Youth

Causality and Moral Responsibility

Anti-Depressants Fail

Quantum Mechanics and Personal Identity

And the Winner is… Many-Worlds!

Quantum Physics Revealed As Non-Mysterious

An Intuitive Explanation of Quantum Mechanics

Prediction Market Based Electoral Map Forecast

TV is Porn

The Quantum Physics Sequence

Never Is A Long Time

Eliezer’s Post Dependencies; Book Notification; Graphic Designer Wanted

Anti-Foreign Bias

Against Devil’s Advocacy

The Future of Oil Prices 3: Nonrenewable Resource Pricing

Meetup in NYC Wed?

How Honest With Kids?

Bloggingheads: Yudkowsky and Horgan

Oil Scapegoats

Timeless Control

How to Add 2% to GDP

Thou Art Physics

Overcoming Disagreement

Living in Many Worlds

Wait For It

Why Quantum?

Against Disclaimers

Timeless Identity

Exploration As Status

Principles of Disagreement

The Rhythm of Disagreement

Open Thread

Singularity Economics

A Premature Word on AI

A.I. Old-Timers

Empty Space

Class Project

Einstein’s Superpowers

Intro to Innovation

Timeless Causality

Overconfidence & Paternalism

Timeless Beauty

Lazy Lineup Study

Timeless Physics

2nd Annual Roberts Podcast

Who Shall We Honor?

Relative Configuration Space

Beware Identity

A Broken Koan

Mach’s Principle: Anti-Epiphenomenal Physics

Lying to Kids

My Childhood Role Model

That Alien Message

Anthropic Breakthrough

Einstein’s Speed

Transcend Or Die

Far Future Disagreement

Faster Than Science

Conference on Global Catastrophic Risks

Biting Evolution Bullets

Changing the Definition of Science

No Safe Defense, Not Even Science

Bounty Slander

Idea Futures In Lumpaland

Do Scientists Already Know This Stuff?

Lobbying for Prediction Markets

Science Isn’t Strict Enough

Lumpaland Parable

When Science Can’t Help

Honest Politics

Science Doesn’t Trust Your Rationality

Sleepy Fools

The Dilemma: Science or Bayes?

The Failures of Eld Science

Condemned to Repeat Finance Past

Many Worlds, One Best Guess

Happy Conservatives

If Many-Worlds Had Come First

Elusive Placebos

Collapse Postulates

Faith in Docs

Quantum Non-Realism

Expelled Beats Sicko

Decoherence is Falsifiable and Testable

Guilt By Association

Decoherence is Simple

Keeping Math Real

Spooky Action at a Distance: The No-Communication Theorem

Walking On Grass, Others

Bell’s Theorem: No EPR “Reality”

Beware Transfusions

Entangled Photons

Beware Supplements

Decoherence as Projection

Open Thread

I’m in Boston

The Born Probabilities

Be biased to be happy

Optimism Bias Desired

Decoherent Essences

Self-Copying Factories

Decoherence is Pointless

Charm Beats Accuracy

The Conscious Sorites Paradox

On Being Decoherent

Quantum Orthodoxy

If I Had A Million

Where Experience Confuses Physicists

Blaming The Unlucky

Where Physics Meets Experience

Early Scientists Chose Influence Over Credit

Which Basis Is More Fundamental?

A Model Disagreement

The So-Called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle

Caplan Pulls Along Ropes


Paternalism Parable

Three Dialogues on Identity

On Philosophers

Zombies: The Movie

Schwitzgebel Thoughts

Identity Isn’t In Specific Atoms

Elevator Myths

No Individual Particles

Is She Just Friendly?

Feynman Paths

Kids, Parents Disagree on Spouses

The Quantum Arena

Classical Configuration Spaces

How To Vs. What To

Can You Prove Two Particles Are Identical?

Naming Beliefs

Where Philosophy Meets Science

Distinct Configurations

Conformity Questions

Conformity Myths

Joint Configurations

Configurations and Amplitude

Prevention Costs

Quantum Explanations

Inhuman Rationality?

Belief in the Implied Invisible

Endearing Sincerity


The Generalized Anti-Zombie Principle

Anxiety about what is true

Ramone on Knowing God

Zombie Responses

Brownlee on Selling Anxiety

Zombies! Zombies?

Reductive Reference

Arbitrary Silliness

Brain Breakthrough! It’s Made of Neurons!

Open Thread

Beware of Brain Images

Heat vs. Motion

Against News

Angry Atoms

Hand vs. Fingers

Impotence of Belief in Bias

Initiation Ceremony

Cash Increases Accuracy

To Spread Science, Keep It Secret

Ancient Political Self-Deception


Fantasy and Reality: Substitutes or Complements?

Is Humanism A Religion-Substitute?

Showing That You Care

Amazing Breakthrough Day: April 1st

Religious Cohesion

The Beauty of Settled Science

Where Want Fewer Women?

New York OB Meetup (ad-hoc) on Monday, Mar 24, @6pm

If You Demand Magic, Magic Won’t Help

Biases in Processing Political Information

Bind Yourself to Reality

Boards of Advisors Don’t Advise, Do Board

Joy in Discovery

Joy in the Merely Real

Sincerity Is Overrated

Savanna Poets

Biases and Investing

Morality Is Overrated

Fake Reductionism

They’re Only Tokens

Explaining vs. Explaining Away


A Few Quick Links

Qualitatively Confused

The Kind of Project To Watch

Penguicon & Blook

One Million Visits

Distinguish Info, Analysis, Belief, Action

The Quotation is not the Referent

Neglecting Conceptual Research

Probability is in the Mind

Limits to Physics Insight

Mind Projection Fallacy

Uninformative Experience

Righting a Wrong Question

Wrong Questions

Dissolving the Question

Bias And Power

Gary Gygax Annihilated at 69

Wilkinson on Paternalism

37 Ways That Words Can Be Wrong

Overvaluing Ideas

Reject Random Beliefs

Variable Question Fallacies

Human Capital “Puzzle” Explained?

Words as Mental Paintbrush Handles

Open Thread

Framing problems as separate from people

Conditional Independence, and Naive Bayes

Searching for Bayes-Structure

Perpetual Motion Beliefs

Ignoring Advice

The Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Engines of Cognition

Leave a Line of Retreat

More Referee Bias

Superexponential Conceptspace, and Simple Words

My Favorite Liar

Mutual Information, and Density in Thingspace

If Self-Fulfilling Optimism is Wrong, I Don’t Wanna be Right

Entropy, and Short Codes

More Moral Wiggle Room

Where to Draw the Boundary?

The Hawthorne Effect

Arguing “By Definition”

Against Polish

Colorful Character Again

Sneaking in Connotations

Nephew Versus Nepal Charity

Categorizing Has Consequences

The Public Intellectual Plunge

Fallacies of Compression

With blame comes hope

Relative vs. Absolute Rationality

Replace the Symbol with the Substance

Talking Versus Trading

Taboo Your Words

Why “Just Believe”?

Classic Sichuan in Millbrae, Thu Feb 21, 7pm

Empty Labels

Is Love Something More?

The Argument from Common Usage

Pod People Paternalism

Feel the Meaning

Dinos on the Moon

Disputing Definitions

What is Worth Study?

How An Algorithm Feels From Inside

Nanotech Views Value Driven

Neural Categories

Believing Too Little

Disguised Queries

Eternal Medicine

The Cluster Structure of Thingspace

Typicality and Asymmetrical Similarity

What Wisdom Silence?

Similarity Clusters

Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace

Extensions and Intensions

Let’s Do Like Them

Words as Hidden Inferences

Predictocracy vs. Futarchy

The Parable of Hemlock

Merger Decision Markets

Open Thread

The Parable of the Dagger

Futarchy vs. Predictocracy

OB Meetup: Millbrae, Thu 21 Feb, 7pm

Newcomb’s Problem and Regret of Rationality

Dark Police

Contingent Truth Value

Deliberative Prediction Markets — A Reply

Something to Protect

Deliberation in Prediction Markets

Trust in Bayes

Predictocracy — A Preliminary Response

The “Intuitions” Behind “Utilitarianism”

Voters Want Simplicity


Rationality Quotes 9

Knowing your argumentative limitations, OR “one [rationalist’s] modus ponens is another’s modus tollens.”

Problems With Prizes

Rationality Quotes 8

Acceptable Casualties

Rationality Quotes 7

CFO Overconfidence

Rationality Quotes 6

Rationality Quotes 5

Connections Versus Insight

Circular Altruism

For Discount Rates

Against Discount Rates

Allais Malaise

Mandatory Sensitivity Training Fails

Rationality Quotes 4

Zut Allais!

The Allais Paradox

Nesse on Academia

Antidepressant Publication Bias

Rationality Quotes 2

Just Enough Expertise?

Rationality Quotes 1

Trust in Math

Economist As Scrooge

Beautiful Probability

Leading bias researcher turns out to be… biased, renounces result

Is Reality Ugly?

Don’t Choose a President the Way You’d Choose an Assistant Regional Manager

Expecting Beauty

How To Fix Wage Bias

Beautiful Math

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities

Once More, With Feeling

Political Inequality

Infinite Certainty

More Presidential Decision Markets!

Experiencing The Endowment Effect

Absolute Authority

Social Scientists Know Lots

The Fallacy of Gray

Art, Trust, and Betrayal

Nuked US Futures

But There’s Still A Chance, Right?

A Failed Just-So Story

Presidential Decision Markets

Open Thread

Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych

Yes, it can be rational to vote in presidential elections

Debugging Comments

Stop Voting For Nincompoops

I Dare You Bunzl

The American System and Misleading Labels

Some structural biases of the political system

The ordering of authors’ names in academic publications

The Two-Party Swindle

Posting on Politics