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Jeff Cliff's avatar

> like double

I think what this sort of reasoning suggests then is this 'like double' is kind of like the collector for 'unknown unknowns' - that to be more realistic is to make this fudge factor much higher and to look for ways of breaking it apart - see http://www.overcomingbias.c...

It also suggests that there's an higher order analog here, since you're a part of a large class of both firms, architects, and developers working on similar problems (or components of similar problems) that you can actually count on working with. The further from the crowd you travel, the bigger this fudge factor can be, too.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

But instead of plain-speaking, Eliezer offers a long Jesus-like parable

It sounds as though you disapprove. However, I hope Eliezer is not discouraged from producing dialogs, because as a reader I find these more enjoyable and digestible than his non-dialogs.

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