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CFTC Event Market Comment

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This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
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CFTC Event Market Comment

Robin Hanson
Jul 7, 2008
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CFTC Event Market Comment

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In May the US CFTC declared that it was considering offering more legal approval for "markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets."  They requested comments, due by today.  My comment concludes:

In addition to existing regulatory regimes for ownership-hedging securities, idiosyncratic-risk-hedging insurance, and common-risk-hedging futures, it could make sense to have a distinct regulatory regime for markets whose main reason to exist is the info that they collect.  Compared with existing commodities futures regulation, such a regime should set a much lower barrier to creating such markets, as much of the social value may be distributed in millions of small markets.  And while it is hard to determine in general which markets would create high social info value, relative to cost, we should presume such high value when a sponsor is willing to pay to ensure that traders suffer no average financial cost from their participation.

Added:  I’m off in a few hours for a two week trip to Helsinki and then Oxford.  I have posts ready for while I’m gone, but I expect to comment less often. 

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CFTC Event Market Comment

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CFTC Event Market Comment

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chy12
May 15

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Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

@Robin Hanson: Michael F. Martin would be referring to Café Kappeli.

There's probably a lot more people in and near Helsinki following OB at least semi-regularly. Anyway, a meetup would be great, if you have time for it.

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