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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

This effect is because you tend to guess in regular interval jumps. Like fives or tens. So your first guess is closest, and the next is 10% away in the right direction. Later guesses might tap unconscious brain work. 20% and 25% for me.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Just a note: the paper does not claim that the average is always better than either guess! Only that you should expect it to be so. Of note, second guesses were worse than first guesses (overall, not always), but it was still better to average (overall, not always).

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