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Here is our monthly place to discuss Overcoming Bias topics that have not appeared in recent posts.
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Here is our monthly place to discuss Overcoming Bias topics that have not appeared in recent posts.
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Exponential growth is typically limited in some way, so that it becomes "S"-shaped, i.e., it approaches an asymptote. Such trends follow the differential equation: dN/dt = k•N•(1-L/N), so as N approaches the limit, L, the factor (1-L/N) approaches zero, thereby stopping the exponential component's influence in the simpler equation dN/dt = k•N, whose solution was exponential. The "S"-shaped curve is pervasive in technological change, and to use simple exponentials is to argue that there are no limits to growth.
A good rule of thumb is: All trends have limits.
What does this mean? Anything rational? Risk vs. Gamble? Gamble here means taking a very large risk past a certain threshhold? Since this guy is a grad student in journalism, I think he should be held to a high standard in terms of lanugage use.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008...
"In his closing arguments last week, the prosecutor, Charles Testagrossa, said, “We ask the police to risk their lives to protect ours.” I agree. But they shouldn’t have to gamble with them.
Kyle K. Murphy, a former lieutenant in the New York Police Department, is a graduate student in journalism at Columbia."