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George Ingebretsen's avatar

I'm interested in how this fits in with the conjunction fallacy https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yq6aA4M3JKWaQepPJ/burdensome-details

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RationalFearOfTerror's avatar

"..alien united them determined to oppose our core symbolic values, making infeasible overly-risky overconfident plans to oppose them"

It interesting when one 'views' such future bias from a pathological altruist context utilising "core symbolic values" your argument is turned on its head.

“The fact is that no-one, right, left or centre, got the true measure of Hitler’s National Socialism, a movement of a kind that had not been seen before and whose aims were rationally unimaginable. Not even his intended victims fully recognised the danger. After the summer election of 1932 which left the Nazi as much the largest party, but short of a majority, the (Jewish) editor of the Tagebuch, a left-liberal weekly we took home, published an article whose headline struck me even then as suicidal. I still see it before me. ‘Lasst ihn heran!’ (‘Why not let him in!’). Source: Diary: Memories of Weimar, Eric Hobsbawn

The fact is relative risk assessment fear/hope is based upon experience.

Your perception appears to me to determine a surface fact such as Australians overestimate the percentage of Muslims within the community as being 18% rather than 2% as determining Australians got it wrong. But psychologically this bias is simply not about surface facts are they, the discrepancy has more to do with the relative threat Australians believe Muslims pose. It is natural in a 'bounded rationality' environment within which humans find themselves to account for potential future extremes given experience to that point in time. It is in a sense a reflection of the developing motivation to turn attention to the risk.

The fact is humans intrinsically understand individuals are not groups and rationally act accordingly - cultures are not benign.

"Communities (cultures) tend to be guided less than individuals by conscience and a sense of responsibility. How much misery does this fact cause mankind! It is the source of wars and every kind of oppression, which fill the earth with pain, sighs and bitterness." (Albert Einstein, 1934)

The fact is the reverse occurs "..alien united them determined to oppose our core symbolic values, making infeasible overly-risky overconfident plans Not to oppose them".

The exact same psychological reduction of risk and distraction regards Islam and the Nazi in the 1930's (given Islam and the Nazi codex contain the exact same construct of Other) to determine as a risk as non-existent or target the very humans pointing out humanity are underestimating a mortal threat because of what are viewed as high up front cost of turning attention to the risk and/or "core symbolic values" preventing the risk being seen as such applies equally to Climate Change.

It would be nice if we could all prance around the camp fires holding hands and The Golden Rule of Cultures did not equal Fools Gold for Other. Given utilizing the existence of the Golden Rule in all cultures codex as proof all cultures can live in peace ignores the fact invariably it is culturally qualified.

Having inter-cultural relations at Maslows level 1 is possible because this is the last breath stuff where one is not too concerned whose hand is reaching down-reciprocity above that all bets are off.

It is not that you are incorrect in specific circumstances but it appears you are suffering from future bias in one major aspect of your analysis. Life sometimes gets worse not better however irrational from our own model view we believe these outcomes may be.

"The attacks - there have been at least four in the busy city in central Iran in recent weeks - appear aimed at terrorising women who dare to test the boundaries of the Islamic dress code.

The crimes coincided with the passage of a new parliamentary bill that allows private citizens to enforce "morality" laws."

Acid attacks in Iran sharpen row over Islamic dress and vigilantism Reuters BY BABAK DEHGHANPISHEH BEIRUT Wed Nov 5, 2014 10:24am

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