Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Some things change daily (the weather) and some things don't change for years (gravity). I think that if you want to predict far in to the future you need to have evidence of constancy of time. A local test might mislead you, because it might tell you your prediction is correct when it's only a short term phenomena/fad.

But alternatively, If you can show a cause and effect chain from now to what you claim, then you don't need any historical evidence. But to do that you need the design complete basically, so it's not really a prediction any more.

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

As far as modestly long term predictions, commodities futures markets (which are basically betting markets on the future prices of commodities) go out as far as nine years. Current betting is that crude oil will be $85 a barrel in December 2017. You can effectively lock in that price today, with a modest down payment, if you think the betting line is wrong.

Expand full comment
6 more comments...

No posts