Companies often ask me if prediction markets can forecast distant future topics. I tell them yes, but that is not the place to test any doubts about prediction markets. To vet or validate prediction markets, you want topics where there will be many similar forecasts over a short time, with other mechanisms making forecasts that can be compared.
Test Near, Apply Far
Test Near, Apply Far
Test Near, Apply Far
Companies often ask me if prediction markets can forecast distant future topics. I tell them yes, but that is not the place to test any doubts about prediction markets. To vet or validate prediction markets, you want topics where there will be many similar forecasts over a short time, with other mechanisms making forecasts that can be compared.
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