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Intro to Innovation

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Intro to Innovation

Robin Hanson
May 29, 2008
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Intro to Innovation

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The topic of innovation comes up often here, so let us review some basics:

  1. Systems are parts in a structure; innovations are better part or structure designs. An innovation embodies insights whose value depends on a context, and so changes with that context.

  2. Most net growth in the number or size of large systems has been due to collecting innovations.

  3. Wars, quakes, and diseases may be distributed so most impact comes from the few largest instances.  In contrast, in large systems most innovation value comes from many small innovations.  Even big innovations require many matching small innovations to be viable.

  4. Innovation rates increase when early innovations make it easier to pursue later innovations, and decrease when the most valuable easiest innovations tend to be pursued first.  Steady (exponential) growth suggests that these factors roughly cancel.  Since growth rates commonly increase then decrease, usually the second factor eventually wins.   

  5. Innovation in large systems comes mostly from part innovation, so system innovation is steadier than part innovation, and the largest systems grow steadiest.

  6. System structures vary in how well they encourage and test innovations locally and then distribute the best ones widely.  Better structures for this are meta-innovations.

    • Good modularity reduces the need to match innovations in differing parts. 

    • Good abstraction puts similar innovation problems within the same part.

  7. If a barrier isolates two systems, the faster growing one eventually dominates.  A system that better promotes innovation can lose to a system with a larger source of innovation. 

  8. In large innovation pools, similar innovations commonly arise from several semi-independent sources at nearly the same time.  No single source was essential.

  9. Current human society can give incentives to innovate too much, when innovation is used to signal, and to innovate too little, when innovators are not paid the full value gained by others.

I learned this stuff long ago so I have little idea how commonly known this all is. 

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Intro to Innovation

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Intro to Innovation

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Jeff Cliff
May 15

1-8 have to do with system-level aspects of innovation. 9 seems to break down and go to the individual innovator and it might be more true to say that there are things that will cause that individual to innovate more and less, things that will be incentives either way.

Current human society can give incentives to innovate too much, when innovation is used to signal, and to innovate too little, when conformity to the status quo is used to signal.

Too little innovation can also occur when innovators do not have access to * capital(otherwise you'll concern yourself with building capital/survival)*information(otherwise you'll invent the wrong thing)*existing innovations(otherwise you'll be reinventing the wheel)*tools(otherwise you'll spend your time toolmaking).

It can occur when privacy is limited and vested interests monitor the activity and communication of innovators to make sure they aren't doing the wrong kind of innovation(see: 'the botany of desire' & early 21st century horticulture ). It can occur when the necessary means of experimentation required to innovate is not present(ie not so much that you aren't getting paid *for* your innovation as much as getting paid *to* innovate). It can occur when the social incentives to change structures are not in a sense 'owned' by those innovating (see: greeks reliance on slavery lead to them not capturing energy via steam as much as they could).

There are plenty of factors that come into play when you drop down from the system level to the individual level, which will be mostly broadly true no matter what kind of change we're talking about, and some kinds of factors that will be true only insofar as a particular kind of innovation is involved.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

I have found the work of Charles Leadbetter interesting on this subject (there is a Youtube video but here is his personal website)

http://www.charlesleadbeate...

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