Discover more from Overcoming Bias
From the current New Scientist:
In an experiment dubbed "Cola Wars", [Nick Epley] conducted a taste test with a twist: he told participants which cola was Coke and which was Pepsi before tasting began. After tasting, all they had to do was estimate what percentage of their friends would be able to distinguish between the two in a blind taste test. Studies show that people’s ability to do this is no better than chance – so an answer around 50 per cent would be right. What Epley found was intriguing. When he motivated volunteers to give a considered response – by offering them a cash payment – their answers tended to be close to 50 per cent. Subjects who were not paid, however, seemed to answer with an egocentric bias: since they knew which cola was which, they assumed that a high proportion of their friends would guess correctly (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol 87, p 327). For Epley, the finding supports his idea that putting yourself inside the head of another person and considering their perspective requires a cognitive effort that simple egocentric judgements do not.
Make no mistake: stronger incentives often (though not always) make us see more clearly.
Cash Increases Accuracy
I'm reading "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell, and he discusses something that seems relevant here. The sip test with the challenge of distinguishing two colas isn't a very effective test of flavour discrimination. The test that really distinguishes flavor experts from non-experts is the "triangle test": three glasses, two of which contain the same cola. The challenge is drink them in sequence (presumably with a palate cleanser in between) and then pick the odd one out. Research shows that the general population can't do much better than chance at this test -- you really need to be an expert to perform well.
Cognition,There was a problem from a math club that a guy brought into work and all the math people where working on it for days. He and one other person got it and he got it first. There where some smart people working there. Also one day I was working on a math problem, probably not difficult for a math person but for a regular programmer like me it was not something that I knew and I was having trouble finding how to do it. I asked him and off the top of his head he wrote to ways to do it on white board. It also was not in his area having to do with finance rather than science which was more in his area. I was impressed but maybe just because I am a dolt.