Overcoming Bias

Share this post

More Presidential Decision Markets!

www.overcomingbias.com

More Presidential Decision Markets!

Robin Hanson
Jan 8, 2008
Share this post

More Presidential Decision Markets!

www.overcomingbias.com

Wow.  Under "politics," next to the "US Pres. Decisions" section I announced Friday, Intrade.com now has an "Impact of next Pres." section, with markets for conditional estimates of these four parameters:

  • eco growth to be at least 2.5% over the next three years,

  • unemployment rate to be less than 5% at end of 2011,

  • number of violent crimes in 2010 to be less than in 2007, and

  • Democrats to control House of Rep’s after 2010 mid-terms,

given each of these seven candidates: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney.  Cool!  I don’t see any orders in these markets yet though, so it is hard to tell how much liquidity they will have.

Added: This is a research initiative of the University of Westminster.

Share this post

More Presidential Decision Markets!

www.overcomingbias.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing