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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Here's another report on the dangers of driving while tired. It's about a controlled experiment which avoids the problems Zubon worries about, but doesn't tell us how much harm results.

There are plenty of alternatives to coffee for getting caffeine. My favorites are Rocket Chocolate, and Penguin caffeinated mints.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Drowsy driving is hard to pin down. The crash data is horrible, because by the time the officer arrives to fill out the report, the driver is awake (or dead, or in an ambulance). Loud crashing sounds can do that. There is an interaction effect between drowsiness and alcohol, such that two beers and sleep deprivation might work out to four beers, but again try getting good data since most drinking happens at night. When the bars close at 2am, people are not getting much sleepier or drunker than that.

The evening rush hour is worse for crashes than the morning, but there are many possible explanations. It seems intuitive that in the morning you are both rested and caffeinated, so you have fewer drowsiness-related crashes, but I cannot support that with reliable data. All I can do is recommend an extra cup of coffee around 4pm. And I don't drink coffee, so that's out.

Friday evening rush hour is worse for crashes than the earlier days of the week, but again that is not just drowsiness. I would like to be able to tell a clear story about mounting sleep deprivation, with people becoming increasingly tired as the week wears on and sleep debt builds up, but I would want to see a steady increase in crashes as the week wears on. Running numbers quickly for my state, it seems to follow that trend, but Thursday is not cooperating. It is closer if I drop back a year or two (but not three). I might be able to find a better connection if I spend more than a few minutes, but it will remain shaky because we cannot test for "drowsy" after the fact as easily as "drunk."

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