Discover more from Overcoming Bias
There are two mistakes you can make when you read a scientific paper: You can believe it (a) too much or (b) too little. The possibility of believing something too little does not occur to most professional scientists, at least if you judge them by their public statements, which are full of cautions against too much belief and literally never against too little belief. Never. If I’m wrong — if you have ever seen a scientist warn against too little belief — please let me know. Yet too little belief is just as costly as too much. … Addendum. By “too little belief” I meant too little belief in facts … there is plenty of criticism of too little belief in this or that favored theory.
Academics live to show they are not "simple" like ordinary people, but instead apply complex theories and data analysis techniques. So academics tend to reject the simple data and simple theories that persuade most people.
Believing Too Little
Robin,
Sorry if it was ambiguous, but my use of the term "defend" was meant as a request for the presentation of some supporting evidence (even anecdotal).
"There are two mistakes you can make when you read a scientific paper: You can believe it (a) too much or (b) too little. ....Yet too little belief is just as costly as too much."
Accounting has this same problem; accounts are falling over themselves to give things the lowest possible value. This is best summed up in their favorite phrase, "lower of cost or market." Understating assets is just as misleading as overstating them, so why do they do it?
Because the pressure in accounting is to overstate. Being conservative has two advantages; primarily it shows you're not overstating (adding credibility to the numbers presented), and second, it helps compensate for whatever overstating there is.
In science the pressure is to make new ground breaking discoveries. Doubting distinguishes one from those who eagerly jump on every new topic and preserve one's credibility for when a real discovery is made.
If the pattern were not that many more discoveries were claimed than were made doubting would be a bad, but because most claims are false doubting holds value.