Overcoming Bias

Share this post

Just Enough Expertise?

www.overcomingbias.com

Discover more from Overcoming Bias

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
Over 11,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Just Enough Expertise?

Robin Hanson
Jan 16, 2008
Share this post

Just Enough Expertise?

www.overcomingbias.com
36
Share

Karl Sabbagh on this year’s Edge question:

I used to believe that there were experts and non-experts and that, on the whole, the judgment of experts is more accurate, more valid, and more correct than my own judgment. But over the years, thinking – and I should add, experience – has changed my mind. What experts have that I don’t are knowledge and experience in some specialized area. What, as a class, they don’t have any more than I do is the skills of judgment, rational thinking and wisdom. … Most of us confuse expertise with judgment. …

As a result of changing my mind about this, I now view the judgments of others, however distinguished or expert they are, as no more valid than my own. If someone who is a ‘specialist’ in the field disagrees with me about a book idea, the solution to the Middle East problems, the non-existence of the paranormal or nuclear power, I am now entirely comfortable with the disagreement because I know I’m just as likely to be right as they are.

I’m confident that, as an author and television producer, Karl Sabbagh frequently identifies others he thinks less likely than him to be right.  For example, he probably rejects most book or TV show concepts proposed by ordinary people, justifiably pointing to his superior experience and success in such ventures.  Thus Sabbagh thinks that on most topics he happens to have about as much expertise as is useful; less expertise than his hurts your accuracy, but more expertise than his doesn’t help your accuracy.

I think this same “I have the max useful expertise” view is shared by the typical internet “troll”:

A person who posts incendiary comments with the express purpose of provoking an argument.

Trolls are said to be distinguished by:

  • a lack of buy-in to the list philosophy or values

  • generally low level of activity, with sudden spurts of interaction …

  • a mixture of friendly posts with a confrontational style of interaction

  • the use of provocative language and sweeping generalizations …

  • a lack of in-depth understanding of the topic

This seems to me the classic arrogant young man, who dismisses “smaller” opponents as unworthy, but doubts “bigger” ones could beat him.  He talks tough and swaggers around looking for any easy fight with an audience.  And unfortunately non-expert trolls, and their non-expert audiences, often simply cannot see when their arguments are “beaten” by experts.  As Sean Carroll says:

There is also an unhealthy brand of skepticism, proceeding from ignorance rather than expertise, which insists that any consensus must flow from a reluctance to face up to the truth, rather than an appreciation of the evidence.  It’s that kind of skepticism that keeps showing up in my email.  Unsolicited.  Heresy is more romantic than orthodoxy.  … Many casual heretics can’t be bothered with all the detailed theoretical arguments and experimental tests that support the models they hope to overthrow.

You need non-trivial evidence to justifiably conclude you have just enough expertise.

Share this post

Just Enough Expertise?

www.overcomingbias.com
36
Share
36 Comments
Share this discussion

Just Enough Expertise?

www.overcomingbias.com
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

I said minimally informed people, which means, people who read the new york times.If you read Caplan's review, he points out that the "laymen" in Tetlock's study were students who would have been far better informed than the general public.

But their choices are often no better than flipping a coin in domains with larger uncertainties.Caplan also states in his review that Tetlock "loaded the dice", as they say, in favor of the randomly-guessing "chimps" and against experts.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Robin Hanson
May 15

Let me put the challenge this way. Either there are indicators of who is more accurate or there are not. If there are no indicators, then everyone is equally likely to be accurate, and a simple average of everyone's views would be the best we could do. If there are indicators of who is more accurate, then you should defer to the opinions of people who score better according to those indicators, in addition to feeling that those who score worse should defer to you.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
34 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing