My Fertility Posts
These are my blog posts on fertility, in reverse chronological order:
Jan 21: Are We A Tower of Babel? Amish-like who repopulate Earth my see our civ as like a Tower of Babel. This helps us see what they might retain from us.
Jan 17: Five Fertility Fails: 5 attitudes that keep us from solving fertility fall.
Jan 11: Stasis is Illiberal: As innovation halts, the world will likely become less liberal.
Jan 6: Crediting Conservatives: Historians could study how much to credit conservatives for resisting the cultural changes.
Jan 1: How Much More Innovation Before Pause?: We will see ~60-90 years worth of innovation at prior rates before innovation grinds to a halt.
Dec 10, 2023: We Can BUY New Culture Some say money can’t help, as fertility is cultural. But money can induce a big fast search in space of possible culture changes.
Dec 2: Recalibrating Respect: As winners deserve respect, let’s recalibrate to respect the Amish-like cultures on track to replace our civ.
Nov 25: After Eating It, Software Will Bite The World: Declining economy will end new hardware, and find it hard to support so many software systems.
Nov 17: Honing Fertility Fall Theories: I adjust my theories of why fertility fell in response to Hanania critiques.
Nov 15: Bow To Our Future Overlords: To influence the future, accept the Amish-like as likely new winners, and try to figure out what they will honestly value.
Nov 10: Fertility Fall From Selection Neglect: A habit of copying what high status folks do reinforces a selection effect: having fewer kids can make them higher status.
Nov 6: Ancient Fertility Quotes: The ancient world consistently had problems with low fertility, problems it never solved.
Oct 31: What If Culture Is Unstable?: What if cultures just do random walks, with most places bad compared to where they start? Might that explain fertility change?
Oct 13: Turn the Ship, or Abandon It: Our choice is to try to turn the huge slow ship that is world culture, or throw in with a deviant small insular fertile subculture.
Oct 2: A Fertility Reckoning: We should face the hard fact that treasured aspects of world culture conflict with fertility, threatening our longterm existence.
Oct 1: Four Uses For Personal Tax Assets: Transferable rights to individual tax payments have many uses, including paying parents to make productive kids.
Sep 22: Can Govt Debt Solve Fertility?: Governments could borrow money to pay parents large amounts per kid, much as one can borrow to pay for home additions.
Sep 15: The Return of "Commune-ism": The Amish-like who will inherit the Earth live in small-scale autonomous communes.
Sep 10: Will Nations Fund Fertility?: Nations seem unlikely to fund fertility rises.
Sep 4: Escalating Signals Cut Fertility: I review the many strong and treasured social trends that promote fertility decline.
Aug 23: 16 Fertility Scenarios: I outline 16 scenarios by which fertility fall may reverse, and show poll results re which are more desirable or likely.
Aug 21: Shrinking Economies Don’t Innovate: In a declining economy due to falling population, innovation grinds to a halt.
That is when my recent burst of posts on fertility started. Some earlier posts:
Dec. 2021: On Evolved Values: Eventually our descendants will be selected for consciously and abstractly know their main value: reproduction.
Sep. 2021: The Insular Fertile Future. Insular fertile subcultures like the Amish will plausibly win the future over our falling-fertility world culture.
Nov. 2010: Fertility: The Big Problem. It was my guess for the world’s biggest problem.