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Robin Hanson's avatar

I've just added to the post.

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Sina Khanifar's avatar

A: "If the world economy reaches a peak and then falls to a level that is only X% of that peak, but stays within the same growth mode, then at that point the rate of innovation would be no more than X% of the prior peak rate. Fewer than X% of N typical innovations would be found per year."

B: "That is, in a shrinking economy, innovation grinds to a halt!"

How does B follow from A? Isn't the correct conclusion that innovation decreases? It doesn't grind to a halt. It just isn't happening as quickly.

As long as people are around, innovation still occurs. It just happens at a slower pace if there are fewer of us.

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