Overcoming Bias

Share this post

Priceless Fertility

www.overcomingbias.com

Discover more from Overcoming Bias

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
Over 14,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Priceless Fertility

Robin Hanson
Jun 30, 2011
Share this post

Priceless Fertility

www.overcomingbias.com
17
Share

Our falling fertility problem is worse than I thought:

We analyze a staged expansion of subsidized child care in Norway. … There is little, if any, causal effect of subsidized child care on maternal employment, despite a strong correlation. Instead of increasing mothers’ labor supply, the new subsidized child care mostly crowds out informal child care arrangements, suggesting a significant net cost of the child care subsidies. (more)

It is harder than you might think to pay people in cash to have more kids. Alas paying them in status is much harder to arrange.

Share this post

Priceless Fertility

www.overcomingbias.com
17
Share
17 Comments
Share this discussion

Priceless Fertility

www.overcomingbias.com
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

Yes there is good evidence. Human population was stable or very slowly increasing from prehistoric times until quite recently. Exponential increases in population only occurred after modern disease prevention. Exponential increases in population occurred last in regions where there is misogyny and abuse of women, which also happen to be regions of poverty (except where there are natural resources to sell such as oil).

I presume that misogyny and abuse of women are not recent cultural changes but have existed in those regions since antiquity.

In any case, if women don't want to have children, what ethical principle allows abuse and coercion? Especially when market solutions have not been tried first?

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

I certainly don't want them to have more kids.There are lots of relatively short-term hazards our society is subjectto, but insufficient fertility isn't one of them. Most of the hazards(particularly environmental limits) get more dangerous as populationrises.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
15 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Robin Hanson
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing