Sitemap - 2006 - Overcoming Bias

Normative Bayesianism and Disagreement

Vulcan Logic

Benefit of Doubt = Bias

See, But Don’t Believe

The Future of Oil Prices 2: Option Probabilities

Resolving Your Hypocrisy

Academic Overconfidence


Ads that Hurt

Gifts Hurt

Advertisers vs. Teachers II

Why Common Priors

The Future of Oil Prices

A Fable of Science and Politics

A Christmas Gift for Rationalists

When Truth is a Trap

You Will Age And Die

Contributors: Be Half Accessible

“I don’t know.”

You Are Never Entitled to Your Opinion

A Decent Respect

Why Not Impossible Worlds?

Modesty in a Disagreeable World

To Win Press, Feign Surprise

Advertisers vs. Teachers

When Error is High, Simplify

Finding the Truth in Controversies

Bias in Christmas Shopping

Does the Modesty Argument Apply to Moral Claims?

Philosophers on Moral Bias

Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus

Malatesta Estimator

Fillers Neglect Framers

The 80% Forecasting Solution

Ignorance of Frankenfoods

Do Helping Professions Help More?

Should Prediction Markets be Charities?

We Are Smarter Than Me

Law as No-Bias Theatre

The Modesty Argument

Agreeing to Agree

Time on Risk

Leamer’s 1986 Idea Futures Proposal

Alas Amateur Futurism

The Wisdom of Crowds

Reasonable Disagreement

Math Zero vs. Political Zero

Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers

Seen vs. Unseen Biases

Future Selves

Does Profit Rate Insight Best?

Bias, Well-Being, and the Placebo Effect

Biases of Science Fiction

The Proper Use of Humility

The Onion on Bias: “Duh”

Macro Shares: Prediction Markets via Stock Exchanges?

Thank you ma’am, may I have another?

Beware of Disagreeing with Lewis

In[]cautious defense of bias

Pascalian Meditations

Are The Big Four Econ Errors Biases?

Surprisingly Friendly Suburbs

Beware Amateur Science History

…What’s a bias, again?

Why truth? And…

Asymmetric Paternalism

To the barricades! Against … what exactly?

Foxes vs Hedgehogs: Predictive Success

What exactly is bias?

Moral Overconfidence

Why Are Academics Liberal?

A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market

The Martial Art of Rationality

Beware Heritable Beliefs

The wisdom of bromides

The Movie “Click”

Quiz: Fox or Hedgehog?

Hide Sociobiology Like Sex?

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