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Robin Hanson's avatar

Paul, there are several possible reasons to declare predictions, but this paper doesn't care about the reason, it is looking at the consequences of such declarations.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Hmm... if there's an active prediction market, why would (competent) predictors ever want to (honestly) declare their predictions? Or is the idea here that they'd work something like the people who publish stock picking advice now -- that there'd be a layer of the prediction market that finds it more profitable to sell their opinions than to bet on them? (Does anyone know of any work comparing the records of the best of those public analysts to the best traders who don't declare their picks?)

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