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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Eliezer: Sorry, I did not mean to say that no individual could reliably distinguish good from bad science (at least in particular area). I meant to say that you can't tell which individuals to trust--even including yourself. (Linguistically speaking, I was using "reliably" to modify "individuals" in a grouped sense, not a distributive one, which is probably the less available interpretation of the two, and still imprecise.)

"On what? The Modesty Argument?"

Sorry, no. I mean how you compare to de Grey in your opposition to the consensus views of scientists in your field. Would Hal's argument that "on that basis I would predict that his project will not experience much success" apply equally to your research? I would say yes--the reason I support the SIAI nonetheless is that my limited expertise points me towards trusting my own judgment in the matter over that of the scientific consensus. Since I don't have as much expertise in biology, I must depend more on the scientific consensus in my evaluation of de Grey.

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Robin Hanson's avatar

My post today about "To Win Press, Feign Surprise," and other posts I will make, show there are identifiable biases in academic consensus. So even better than accepting the academic consensus is to correct that consensus for these identifiable biases.

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