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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Can this modeling science be extrapolated to retail politics? For example, can one model a particular issue in politics and see what the model predicts and then use that prediction as a straw man or context from which to assess the competing mainstream arguments and policy choices. If nothing else, that ought to force more objectivity into what is now a mostly irrational and incoherent process. It also might make the always confident but usually wrong pundits and ideologues explain themselves at least some.

I understand from Tetlock's book that there are caveats and weaknesses, but the data from the better models suggested that maybe it is time to test this technology in the real world, even if the science is in its infancy.

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gwern's avatar

New Yorker link now at http://www.newyorker.com/ar...

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