Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Robin Hanson's avatar

Hal, the idea is that we don't want to require infinite effort to obtain info, analyze it, etc. Typically there is an opportunity cost for reducing error; we are interesting in ways to reduce effort that cost less than the usual cost we pay. Also, yes, as I said, naming this "Overcoming Error" would be a cleaner definition; it would just less clearly connote the reasons we think our goal is achievable.

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I see some problems with distinguishing between cheap and non-cheap avoidable error, and defining bias as just the cheap kind: If bias is cheaply avoidable error, then what do we call expsnsive avoidable error? Why is it OK to have avoidable error that is expensive? And what is the dividing line, how expensive does avoidable error have to be before we will say that we shouldn't care about eradicating it?

Defining the goal as overcoming bias, and then needing to define what bias is, is something of a double negative. Maybe it would be better to state things in positive terms: our goal is to minimize belief errors. This would then automatically lead us to focus on reducing those sources of error which provide the best cost/benefit payoff.

Expand full comment
5 more comments...

No posts