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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Paul, not all Bayesians think that the Modesty Argument follows from Aumannlike theorems. Remember, my post on this subject was an argument *against* Modesty, and I certainly count myself a Bayesian wannabe.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

And yet... the vast, vast, overwhelming majority of the world's population believes in SOME form of deity. So this sort of decision process would seem to (unacceptably) require a pretty decisive rejection of atheism regardless of the superior arguments in its favor, non?

(This is another thing that worries me about normative Bayes -- not just the fact that it seems to require religion, which sounds like a reductio to me -- but the fact that it would seem to get different results depending on the level of generality of the belief in question.)

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