World Value Drift

A new paper looks at 40 questions from the World Values Survey from 1981 to 2022 (n = 406,185) for the 76 nations that did this survey more than once. Overall these values diverged over these four decades. The strongest factor from a factor analysis explained 65% of variation, and was strongly linked (b = 0.76) to Welzel’s “emancipative vs. obedient” [EO] dimension (“restrict the freedom of the individual from the group”), and less so (b = 0.26) to Welzel’s “sacred vs. secular” [SS] dimension. The value divergence rate correlated with EO, but not SS.

The 7 items with the highest divergence scores each have high loadings on the EO dimension. These values were (1) justifiability of homosexuality, (2) justifiability of euthanasia, (3) importance of obedience of children, (4) justifiability of divorce, (5) justifiability of prostitution, (6) justifiability of suicide, and (7) justifiability of abortion. … Value variation across countries increased 141% for justifiability of homosexuality, 94% for justifiability of prostitution, 61% for justifiability of euthanasia, and 42% for importance of childhood obedience.

Values emphasizing tolerance and self-expression have diverged most sharply, especially between high-income Western countries and the rest of the world. … Countries with similar per-capita GDP levels have held similar values over the last 40 years. Over time, however, geographic proximity has emerged as an increasingly strong correlate of value similarity. 

Value divergence mainly characterizes a growing gap between high-income Western countries and the rest of the world on EO. … Divergence on EO is increasingly distinguishing Western countries from non-Western ones. … Oceanic, European, North American, and South American countries have progressively endorsed more EO, whereas endorsement of these values has been stable across Asian and African countries. …

Higher-income countries have more distinctive [i.e., different from average] values than lower-income countries. … Association between GDP per capita and value distinctiveness was non-significant in both Africa and Asia, … Western nations in these early [surveys] held more EO values than non-Western nations, but not by a large degree. As time passed, rising wealth led Western countries to adopt more EO values, but it did not have the same effect for most non-Western countries. …

As countries develop more homogenous values, they … increasingly splinter from viewpoints that are shared around the rest of the world. … Wealth has been the strongest correlate of value similarity across nations over time. … Geographic proximity has become progressively more correlated with value similarity over time … Countries with more similar religious profiles have more similar values.

So, bottom line, over the last 40 years, rich Western nations have changed lots on, moved away from the static Asia and Africa on, and became more internally homogenous on, individualist values like homosexuality, prostitution, euthanasia, and childhood obedience (and divorce and abortion). The most extreme leaders of this trend are Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, and Netherlands. 

This seems mildly good news for value diversity and drift. While rich Western nations have made big value changes, the rest of the world isn’t following them. Alas this difference doesn’t seem to be much related to fertility, and world elites are probably much closer to the rich Western trend; non-elites tend to eventually follow the lead of elites. And this new diversity still seems way too low, especially given how weak is cultural selection now.