Most likely, our world civilization will peak in population in about three decades, and its economy will peak soon after, or maybe even before, depending on how bad Africa is at substituting for Western folks in the world economy.
I genuinely appreciate an effort to put responsibility on those currently best positioned to do something about it before it's too late (if it isn't already). Thank you.
And economic growth is driven by technology, not population. Population decline or not, we're not going to forget how to make modern technology. Technology marches forward. Any analysis of the economy decades in the future that fails to account for AI in particular is a dream. The economy is going to get more and more automated, inevitably and obviously. How many machines and robots we have is just as relevant for productivity as how many people.
There are also far more people who want to innovate and are trained to do so, than spots available for them, looking at PhDs vs professorships. PhDs often fail to get work in their field. If the pool of people getting PhDs declines by 20%, there will still be more than enough people capable of doing all the innovation work we're currently doing - all the scientist and engineer jobs will still be filled. If it ever becomes a problem, it's a self-correcting problem, because those jobs will then be paid more, attracting more people into the PhD pipeline.
I believe you underestimate the complexity of the world and the value of people in maintaining that knowledge. Furthermore, technology does not march forward, people push it forward. As the number of people decline, the ability of society to support innovators and researchers will decline, while the need for many professions will remain proportional to population
" I believe you underestimate the complexity of the world and the value of people in maintaining that knowledge" - The point of my last paragraph is that we have many *more* people who trained to be top-level experts (PhDs) than jobs for them. There are plenty more in line. The vast majority of people work in jobs that could be automated with good enough AI and robots.
"while the need for many professions will remain proportional to population" - that's no problem then, if the need is proportional to population then the need will decline if the population does.
If modernity is already failing, forcing Haredim into it does not prevent collapse. It converts a surviving subculture into a failing one and removes future optionality. Clean your own house first. Liquidating minority alternatives to delay decline is exactly the kind of peak era behavior that deserves blame.
There is a big difference between "modernity" and becoming more modern. We must try to avoid civilizational collapse, and I think getting more of the Haredim to accept science will not destroy Haredi culture and could have a huge positive effect.
I genuinely appreciate an effort to put responsibility on those currently best positioned to do something about it before it's too late (if it isn't already). Thank you.
Artificial wombs could make a difference
"A difference" is a long way from "enough difference".
This is just detached from reality. The UN projections are a peak around 2084, around 60 years in the future, not 30.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections
And economic growth is driven by technology, not population. Population decline or not, we're not going to forget how to make modern technology. Technology marches forward. Any analysis of the economy decades in the future that fails to account for AI in particular is a dream. The economy is going to get more and more automated, inevitably and obviously. How many machines and robots we have is just as relevant for productivity as how many people.
There are also far more people who want to innovate and are trained to do so, than spots available for them, looking at PhDs vs professorships. PhDs often fail to get work in their field. If the pool of people getting PhDs declines by 20%, there will still be more than enough people capable of doing all the innovation work we're currently doing - all the scientist and engineer jobs will still be filled. If it ever becomes a problem, it's a self-correcting problem, because those jobs will then be paid more, attracting more people into the PhD pipeline.
I believe you underestimate the complexity of the world and the value of people in maintaining that knowledge. Furthermore, technology does not march forward, people push it forward. As the number of people decline, the ability of society to support innovators and researchers will decline, while the need for many professions will remain proportional to population
" I believe you underestimate the complexity of the world and the value of people in maintaining that knowledge" - The point of my last paragraph is that we have many *more* people who trained to be top-level experts (PhDs) than jobs for them. There are plenty more in line. The vast majority of people work in jobs that could be automated with good enough AI and robots.
"while the need for many professions will remain proportional to population" - that's no problem then, if the need is proportional to population then the need will decline if the population does.
I have not found any cause for concern. What is it you hope to accomplish in perpetuity?
Are you rooting for a uniform?
Or for a losing roster?
Why would today’s respondents be representative of respondents in decline?
What moral weight would “blame” have in decline?
Does “civ” reduce suffering?
Can suffering be reduced?
Getting Haredim to become more modern is not a lost cause
If modernity is already failing, forcing Haredim into it does not prevent collapse. It converts a surviving subculture into a failing one and removes future optionality. Clean your own house first. Liquidating minority alternatives to delay decline is exactly the kind of peak era behavior that deserves blame.
There is a big difference between "modernity" and becoming more modern. We must try to avoid civilizational collapse, and I think getting more of the Haredim to accept science will not destroy Haredi culture and could have a huge positive effect.