I caught a good episode of Derren Brown 'The Mentalist - The System'. UK magician Brown had come up with a way to 'beat probability theory'.
Derren Brown
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The System, a Channel 4 special in which Brown shared his "100 per cent guaranteed" method for winning on the horses, was first shown on 1 February 2008.[12]
The show was based around the idea that a system could be developed to "guarantee a winner" of horse races. Cameras followed an ordinary member of the public, Khadisha, as Brown anonymously sent her correct predictions of five races in a row, before encouraging her to place as much money as she could on the sixth race.
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In one scene a group of bookmakers was placed in a room and asked to use probability theory to calculate the odds of what would follow. Each person was asked to select a photo at random from a set of photos of people's faces, and then to stand at a random location. But Brown correctly predicted the exact photo and location which each person would choose. The probability of this happening was calculated at less than 1 in a billion!
Brown had found the big flaw in probability theory :D
In http://www.overcomingbias.c... I thought you made some good points about old thinkers. My question is, are there better books to read than "The Prince" or "The Art of War" about conflict and strategy that are more recent and worthwhile? Specifically looking for a book that would apply those concepts to social life.
I caught a good episode of Derren Brown 'The Mentalist - The System'. UK magician Brown had come up with a way to 'beat probability theory'.
Derren Brown
---
The System, a Channel 4 special in which Brown shared his "100 per cent guaranteed" method for winning on the horses, was first shown on 1 February 2008.[12]
The show was based around the idea that a system could be developed to "guarantee a winner" of horse races. Cameras followed an ordinary member of the public, Khadisha, as Brown anonymously sent her correct predictions of five races in a row, before encouraging her to place as much money as she could on the sixth race.
---
In one scene a group of bookmakers was placed in a room and asked to use probability theory to calculate the odds of what would follow. Each person was asked to select a photo at random from a set of photos of people's faces, and then to stand at a random location. But Brown correctly predicted the exact photo and location which each person would choose. The probability of this happening was calculated at less than 1 in a billion!
Brown had found the big flaw in probability theory :D
In http://www.overcomingbias.c... I thought you made some good points about old thinkers. My question is, are there better books to read than "The Prince" or "The Art of War" about conflict and strategy that are more recent and worthwhile? Specifically looking for a book that would apply those concepts to social life.