Announcing: SciCast

A year ago I announced that our IARPA-funded DAGGRE prediction market on world events had finally implemented my combinatorial prediction market tech (which I was prevented from showcasing nine years earlier), with a new-improved tech for efficient exact computation in near-tree-shaped networks.

Now we announce: DAGGRE is dead, and SciCast is born. Still funded by IARPA, SciCast focuses on predicting science and technology, it has a cleaner interface developed by Inkling, and it has been reimplemented from scratch to support ten times as many users and questions. We also now have Bruce D’Ambrosio’s firm Tuuyi on board to develop and implement even more sophisticated algorithms.

But wait, there’s more. We’ve got formal partnerships with AAAS and IEEE, have a thousand folks pre-registered to participate, and we hope to attract thousands of expert users, folks who really know their sci/tech. We’ve seeded SciCast with over a hundred questions, many contributed by top experts, and hope to soon have thousands of questions, mostly submitted by users.

Alas, we aren’t allowed to pay our participants money or prizes. But if you have sci/tech issues you want forecasted, if you want to prove your insight into the future of sci/tech, or if you want to influence the perceived consensus on sci/tech, join us at SciCast.org!

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  • Robert Koslover

    Congratulations on the launch of this impressive endeavor!

  • anon

    This looks pretty cool! But given that there’s no money at stake, I wonder if it is anything like a test of the prediction market hypothesis. So I wonder why you in particular think it’s valuable.

    • http://overcomingbias.com RobinHanson

      The tech we are developing and field testing here is in the public domain, and is available to be used by other prediction markets with stronger incentives.

      • Catfish

        So anybody can create another intrade with better software?

      • http://overcomingbias.com RobinHanson

        The lack of quality software isn’t the reason that there isn’t another Intrade.

  • http://CommonSenseAtheism.com lukeprog

    Great!

  • Ari

    Congrats and good luck!

    And yeah I think it is important for people to have a lot of control over the system, and make it evolve over the years. Github and StackExchange are examples of successful crowdwork in action, which put emphasis on public reputation, feeling part of being in a community and openness.

    p.s. The link is broken.

    • Charles R. Twardy

      Robin: 2nd paragraph 2nd link “SciCast” needs an http: it is using a relative link.

      • http://overcomingbias.com RobinHanson

        Fixed.

  • http://www.loolagame.net/ Loola

    I am very much thanks to this website for proving the nice technology and for the information is also very great I am very much satisfied to this technology. You are very like this information and I am defiantly shore about that.

    • Catfish

      I this some automated bot comment?

  • BenGolden1

    Are you able to share ballpark estimates for the cost of building and maintaining these sites?

    • http://overcomingbias.com RobinHanson

      Ours is a research project fielding new tech, so our costs are much larger than other need be.

  • Pingback: Overcoming Bias : SciCast Pays Out Big!