Join The DAGGRE Team

A few weeks back Tyler Cowen posted an appeal from Philip Tetlock:

Starting in mid-2011, five teams will compete in a U.S.-government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Each team will develop its own tools for harnessing and improving collective intelligence and will be judged on how well its forecasters predict [government-chosen] major trends and events around the world over the next four years. … [We] will be one of the five teams competing – and we’d like you to consider joining our team as a forecaster.

You may have seen other teams’ appeals as well. Today I can announce that GMU hosts one of the five teams, please join us! Active participants will earn $50 a month, for about two hours of forecasting work. You can sign up here, and start forecasting as soon as you are accepted.

The government sponsor is IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity), under the ACE (Aggregative Contingent Estimation) program, and our team is DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation & Aggregation).

Our approach has three distinctive features, all visible to participants:

  1. We use an edit-based interface — a current consensus on all questions is visible to all participants, and any user may change any part. Each edit is scored on whether it moves the consensus closer to or further from the truth.  (This is equivalent to a market-maker-based prediction market).
  2. For each question IARPA assigns, we “decompose” it by adding related questions, and letting participants forecast both related questions and how they relate to the assigned questions. For example, users can assume answers to some questions, and then forecast other questions conditional on their assumptions. (This is equivalent to a combinatorial prediction market.)
  3. We will sometimes walk users through a special elicitation process that has been shown in field and lab experiments to produce more accurate estimates.

(Items #2,3 might not show for a week or two.) We are eager to see how our approach compares to the other approaches. Come get paid to help us find out!

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  • http://lesswrong.com/user/Jayson_Virissimo Jayson Virissimo

    I’m on Tetlock’s team. May the most accurate man win!

  • http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets gwern

    I’d sign up but… like Virissimo, Good Judgment Project snagged me first.

    • dvasya

      Same here… I say we need to organize a mass defection of LWers from the GJP to the DAGGR team.

  • Ted

    Yes, please note that you may NOT participate in both the good judgment team AND this DAGGRE team.

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  • kungpow12

    I tried to register, but the site isn’t working. I click on the Next Step button and nothing happens. No error message, either.

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  • hamilton

    A serious question: will the teams disclose participants to one another at the outset to ensure that there isn’t double-dipping? It seems like a really important part of the experiment, given the number of people who are likely aware of (and interesting in participating in) the different projects.

  • http://noupsi.de Renee

    Bummer, I also already joined Good Judgement team. Did GMU decide to field this team later than the others?

  • Ed

    Serious question – – can one switch teams? How — simply by joining team DAGGRE and notifying the Good Judgement Project we’re leaving?

  • http://entitledtoanopinion.wordpress.com TGGP

    I also joined the Good Judgement team before I heard about this. But in an email they said they were going to randomly choose which site joiners would be sent to.

  • forecaster

    I’d love to help (even w/ the experimental design) but like kungpow12 got stuck on Step 1 of Join!

    Also, can you expand on the last bullet on slide 4: “diversity trumps ability”? I think I know what “trumps” means here, just trying to confirm.

  • http://learningtobewrong.wordpress.com/ Justin

    I am stuck on step 1 too! Help! I really want to join this cool project.

  • DK

    I considered joining until I saw this: “What browser should I use? – Right now only Chrome and Safari are fully supported”. I have no intention of ever using either Chrome or Safari, not I want to be a part of a team that is so arrogant (or unprofessional) that it does not support browsers that take up more than 50% of the market share.

  • http://hanson.gmu.edu Robin Hanson

    Many people have asked about switching teams. As far as I know, it is all up to you what team you want to be on, as long as you aren’t on more than one team at a time.

    • dvasya

      From the Informed Consent Acknowledgement:

      Please note that if you are currently participating in another IARPA-funded forecasting study (or plan to do so), you are not eligible to participate in the DAGGRE study.

      Does having applied and qualified for a different team fall under this?

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  • Casimir M . Petrowski

    I am prepared for a long term study because of my life experiance and diverse backround i may have a different point of view which may bring more balance to the project .

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