A few weeks back Tyler Cowen posted an appeal from Philip Tetlock: Starting in mid-2011, five teams will compete in a U.S.-government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Each team will develop its own tools for harnessing and improving collective intelligence and will be judged on how well its forecasters predict [government-chosen] major trends and events around the world over the next four years. … [We] will be one of the five teams competing – and we’d like you to consider joining our team as a forecaster.
I am prepared for a long term study because of my life experiance and diverse backround i may have a different point of view which may bring more balance to the project .
Please note that if you are currently participating in another IARPA-funded forecasting study (or plan to do so), you are not eligible to participate in the DAGGRE study.
Does having applied and qualified for a different team fall under this?
Many people have asked about switching teams. As far as I know, it is all up to you what team you want to be on, as long as you aren't on more than one team at a time.
I considered joining until I saw this: "What browser should I use? - Right now only Chrome and Safari are fully supported". I have no intention of ever using either Chrome or Safari, not I want to be a part of a team that is so arrogant (or unprofessional) that it does not support browsers that take up more than 50% of the market share.
I also joined the Good Judgement team before I heard about this. But in an email they said they were going to randomly choose which site joiners would be sent to.
A serious question: will the teams disclose participants to one another at the outset to ensure that there isn't double-dipping? It seems like a really important part of the experiment, given the number of people who are likely aware of (and interesting in participating in) the different projects.
I am prepared for a long term study because of my life experiance and diverse backround i may have a different point of view which may bring more balance to the project .
From the Informed Consent Acknowledgement:
Please note that if you are currently participating in another IARPA-funded forecasting study (or plan to do so), you are not eligible to participate in the DAGGRE study.
Does having applied and qualified for a different team fall under this?
Many people have asked about switching teams. As far as I know, it is all up to you what team you want to be on, as long as you aren't on more than one team at a time.
I considered joining until I saw this: "What browser should I use? - Right now only Chrome and Safari are fully supported". I have no intention of ever using either Chrome or Safari, not I want to be a part of a team that is so arrogant (or unprofessional) that it does not support browsers that take up more than 50% of the market share.
I am stuck on step 1 too! Help! I really want to join this cool project.
I'd love to help (even w/ the experimental design) but like kungpow12 got stuck on Step 1 of Join!
Also, can you expand on the last bullet on slide 4: "diversity trumps ability"? I think I know what "trumps" means here, just trying to confirm.
I also joined the Good Judgement team before I heard about this. But in an email they said they were going to randomly choose which site joiners would be sent to.
Serious question - - can one switch teams? How -- simply by joining team DAGGRE and notifying the Good Judgement Project we're leaving?
Bummer, I also already joined Good Judgement team. Did GMU decide to field this team later than the others?
A serious question: will the teams disclose participants to one another at the outset to ensure that there isn't double-dipping? It seems like a really important part of the experiment, given the number of people who are likely aware of (and interesting in participating in) the different projects.
Same here... I say we need to organize a mass defection of LWers from the GJP to the DAGGR team.
Yes, please note that you may NOT participate in both the good judgment team AND this DAGGRE team.
I'd sign up but... like Virissimo, Good Judgment Project snagged me first.
I'm on Tetlock's team. May the most accurate man win!