I made a list of 44 possibly important future areas, and just did 22 Twitter polls (with N from 379 to 1178), each time asking this question re 4 areas: Over next 30 years, changes in which are likely to matter most?
There must be a large bias of people with a significant interest in AGI, technology in general and/or economics who voted so not surprised that it doesn't correlate that well to what the media covers.
With respect to life extension, this topic is only beginning to make its way into the public, and I doubt those voting would be higher than 10% in 2010.
I'm pretty sure you couldn't make much progress with this approach, since even in the best case it won't move you past the ~122 year max. lifespan of humans.
If identity/wokeness corresponds to mass epistemological shifts, they will impact everything else on the list in an outsized manner. For instance, if a majority suddenly decided that Racism was perfectly normal and not to be attacked, or if the problem of Evil was not a problem.
I think we could make great progress without AGI, using vast databases, gathered fitbit style, in conjunction with more portable and refined and regular blood and similar tests, and genome sequencing of most app holders.
There must be a large bias of people with a significant interest in AGI, technology in general and/or economics who voted so not surprised that it doesn't correlate that well to what the media covers.
With respect to life extension, this topic is only beginning to make its way into the public, and I doubt those voting would be higher than 10% in 2010.
I'm pretty sure you couldn't make much progress with this approach, since even in the best case it won't move you past the ~122 year max. lifespan of humans.
If identity/wokeness corresponds to mass epistemological shifts, they will impact everything else on the list in an outsized manner. For instance, if a majority suddenly decided that Racism was perfectly normal and not to be attacked, or if the problem of Evil was not a problem.
I think we could make great progress without AGI, using vast databases, gathered fitbit style, in conjunction with more portable and refined and regular blood and similar tests, and genome sequencing of most app holders.
I believe Robin has argued convincingly that AI researchers do not expect AGI for another 80 years or so?
AGI estimates are for 2040 or before. If AGI happens, then there is a good chance life extension follows shortly thereafter
Given the decline in tech. progress, I would not expect life extension in the next 100 years, let alone the next 30.
It's depressing that Life Extension is not that popular in the polls. That may become a self-fullfilling prophecy.