Our job as futurists is to forecast the future. Not exactly of course, but at least to cut the uncertainty. And one of the simplest way to do that is to take relatively stable and robust past long term trends and project them into the future. Especially if those trends still have a long way that they could continue before they hit fundamental limits. For example, futurists have tried to apply this method to increasing incomes, leisure, variety, density, non-violence, automation, and ease of communication and transport.
I remember two TV shows specifically about bureaucracy: The UK show "Yes, Minister / Yes, Prime Minister", and the Canadian TV show "Not My Department".
Reproduction. If individual autonomy is still increasingly valued, then genetic engineering of children could be mandated on grounds of opening up a wider range of life choices, similar to mandates on education and healthcare for children. Some genetic choices might be banned for the same reason, if they are somehow used to impose limitations of lifechoices available to ones offspring. Standard arguments about removing negative externalities could also be used, e.g. removing psychopathy or improving reaction times in order to prevent accidents.
More genetic engineering regulations in the future i.e. you can only select against harmful genes. Resarching increases in IQ seems a bit tricky, I expect you just wouldn't get permission for studying this from bio-ethicists.Though this may change depending on how far wokeism reaches. It seems plausible that China won't research this stuff either, to keep its population easier to handle (a society of Bezos' seems hard to rule with an iron fist). Regulations on who can order exo-womb babies.
Hopefully regulations against GOF research. Some kind of regulation limiting gene drives, who's allowed to make them and for what purpose.
Anti-aging tech: Could enter the Overton window. Probably will be slowed down by regulation, not banned. Might find public demands to fund this ramping up in about 20-30 years. I expect mostly pricing regulation.
I guess regulations on cryonics would be more likely if anti-aging research becomes popular, and people start being anti-death.
More space regulation. Preventing Kessler syndrome, maybe precluding starlink, banning non-public satellites, limiting flights to designated paths etc. Obviously limitations on space mining and colonatisation if they get big. Limitation of economic rights, perhaps severe taxes on materials, restrictions on who can move giant asteroids for defence purposes.
"I can imagine such dress rules getting a lot more explicit and complex." I would say that dress rules have greatly weakened during the last century or so. I do not know whether they are now more complex, but they certainly seem less imperative than before: some such rules still exist, but no one cares nearly as much whether they are observed or broken.
Sci-fi seems to think more bureaucracy leads to more rot. This makes sense if people are signaling that marginal increases in bureaucracy are negative.
I'd like more admin in online stores, in the sense of being able to retaliate to scams more effectively. More sophisticated formal rules for customer services would be nice: right now, you often get stuck at "I'm sorry, without X we can't do anything" which seems ridiculous if e.g. if you want to close your account after you can't pay for the service.
I remember two TV shows specifically about bureaucracy: The UK show "Yes, Minister / Yes, Prime Minister", and the Canadian TV show "Not My Department".
Bureaucracy = entropy.
It always increases as energy gradients steepen.
Reproduction. If individual autonomy is still increasingly valued, then genetic engineering of children could be mandated on grounds of opening up a wider range of life choices, similar to mandates on education and healthcare for children. Some genetic choices might be banned for the same reason, if they are somehow used to impose limitations of lifechoices available to ones offspring. Standard arguments about removing negative externalities could also be used, e.g. removing psychopathy or improving reaction times in order to prevent accidents.
Dov Fox wrote a short and entertaining essay on this. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1...
Also a short one from SSC: https://slatestarcodex.com/...
Oi mate, do you have a license for that tweet?
More genetic engineering regulations in the future i.e. you can only select against harmful genes. Resarching increases in IQ seems a bit tricky, I expect you just wouldn't get permission for studying this from bio-ethicists.Though this may change depending on how far wokeism reaches. It seems plausible that China won't research this stuff either, to keep its population easier to handle (a society of Bezos' seems hard to rule with an iron fist). Regulations on who can order exo-womb babies.
Hopefully regulations against GOF research. Some kind of regulation limiting gene drives, who's allowed to make them and for what purpose.
Anti-aging tech: Could enter the Overton window. Probably will be slowed down by regulation, not banned. Might find public demands to fund this ramping up in about 20-30 years. I expect mostly pricing regulation.
I guess regulations on cryonics would be more likely if anti-aging research becomes popular, and people start being anti-death.
More space regulation. Preventing Kessler syndrome, maybe precluding starlink, banning non-public satellites, limiting flights to designated paths etc. Obviously limitations on space mining and colonatisation if they get big. Limitation of economic rights, perhaps severe taxes on materials, restrictions on who can move giant asteroids for defence purposes.
Also: In Asimov's Foundation, Trantos is described as planet (almost) entirely devoted to bureaucracy.
SF stories that discuss bureaucracy:"Blind Alley" by Isaac AsimovThe chapter "Niche" in "Boat of a Million Years" by Poul Anderson
"I can imagine such dress rules getting a lot more explicit and complex." I would say that dress rules have greatly weakened during the last century or so. I do not know whether they are now more complex, but they certainly seem less imperative than before: some such rules still exist, but no one cares nearly as much whether they are observed or broken.
1) Those grabby aliens are looking better all the time, 2) I’m glad I didn’t read this on a Monday.
Byzantropy.https://www.urbandictionary...
Bureaucracy is a plausible channel of rot. Even so, we have a long way to go before civ collapses due to it. What will happen before then?
Sci-fi seems to think more bureaucracy leads to more rot. This makes sense if people are signaling that marginal increases in bureaucracy are negative.
I'd like more admin in online stores, in the sense of being able to retaliate to scams more effectively. More sophisticated formal rules for customer services would be nice: right now, you often get stuck at "I'm sorry, without X we can't do anything" which seems ridiculous if e.g. if you want to close your account after you can't pay for the service.
Some relevant posts where you discussed scifi literature from the past, some of which did actually discuss bureaucracy:
https://www.overcomingbias....https://www.overcomingbias....https://www.overcomingbias....
the movie "Brazil"?