(This post is more of an essay, intended to be especially widely accessible.) Long ago, my physics teachers taught me to arrogantly dismiss the “paranormal”, like ghosts or telepathy. Or UFOs. Yes, we once saw meteorites as paranormal, but not today. Yes, we now accept ball lightning, even though evidence for it is weaker than for UFOs, but we have plausible theories there.
I think the falling birthrates are a temporary cultural blip, and depend on many details of our socioeconomic particulars. I don't expect them to apply universally. " We're not looking at spreading to everywhere in the galaxy" Give it 100,000 years and we will. Firstly, with advanced nanotech means a population that can be practically immortal if they want. Growth requires very low birth rates if there is no death. Then selection. If there is some cult of fertility, they will slowly outbreed the rest. Then automation, parenting may be much more attractive when a nappy changing robot is developed. Maybe a few of the aliens are total utilitarians. Stopping population growth would require strong coordination without good reason.
Hiding from advanced observation tech might well be an option with advanced hiding tech. We don't know at present.The top predator may not know they're the top predator - especially if others are hiding. Or maybe they don't want to risk losses even if they'd end up winning. (Cf you don't want to fight a nuclear war, even if you'd win it.)
If this were happening 10 years ago, I would head to Jerry Pournelle's old site and read what he and his correspondents have to say on the subject.
That ain't happening, so here is my short contribution to the conversation (if I am right, someone would have said it before me on Pournelle's site)
-possibly we are witnessing the outside of an insider's red/blue battle game, with one side using 2021 cutting edge techonology and the other side using the day-to-day technology.-prosaic explanations might not be all that prosaic - advanced designs using magnetic fields or controllable vacuum fields are "prosaic" because they build on existing technology, but not "prosaic" because of the gap between the observer and the observed (edited for length).
I am not trying to persuade anyone----illusions occur--like mercury in retrograde (now!)---his point about Venus is obviously not just when the planet "looks the same"---but various light base illusions
No, giving many planets an opportunity to roll the dice and have two come up 'life' is impossibility divided by the number of planets where such an event could occur. That's much less than impossibility squared.
Sounds like a reasonable possibility. It's equally likely that we need to invent these things and even fool our own servicemen to cover up various radar spoofing missiles, jets, etc. If we are talking about ufos the other nations are seeing the same anomalies (from our tests over their radar, etc). It provides a solid cover.
We'd even invent a few combos - underwater equipment test with radar spoofing test to add some confusion in the mix.
Of course, I don't discount that the power of the stories to control, paranoia-cize the population, and divide it in groups of easily discredible conspiracy theorists becomes a bonus. That the government can invent a problem and then use that problem to justify more money, power, authority, etc. is pretty much the modus operandi of corrupt governments all over.
The cameras these things appear on are not designed for capturing them. That's why the report stated the need to develop sensors and tech designed specifically to capture them.
I think you're making a mistake in assuming that this is the only way to have a self-replicating protein, or the rotating gizmo pumping protons across a membrane, is the only way to accomplish those things.
I've never understood the whole "It's just Venus' dismissal. Venus is in the sky every night and every morning. It looks the same every time. It doesn't move. It doesn't zip around, or plunge into the water. Do you often get confused when looking up in the sky and seeing the same celestial objects you see every day? "Oh my! What is that, a giant cat in the sky?! Oh, no, it's just the moon."
Seriously, how many people do you think you're going to convince with this Venus theory?
No physical laws, true. But why bother? Bread mold isn't a useful analogy, because mold doesn't have a choice. It reproduces until it consumes its host bread. Regardless of whether the spores have found another piece of bread the originals are doomed as theirs is used up. Intelligent beings don't have to behave in such ways. In fact, as nations grow wealthier their birth rates slow. We're not looking at spreading to everywhere in the galaxy... so why would they?
Raw materials are plentiful. Water? More out there than we can possibly imagine. Our own solar system contains water not just on Earth but on moons, and in the countless comets of the Oort cloud. Minerals? Moons have lower gravity, making extraction easier... and asteroids have even less. There are asteroids out there in our own solar system that could crash the world economy. 16 Psyche, for example, seems to be made entirely out of nickel and iron, more than we could use in centuries, and that's just one example. Hydrogen for fusion? The gas giants are many times the size of Earth. You name it, and it's out there in easy reach for a technologically advanced civilization. Earth offers nothing they can't get elsewhere. And there's no reason to think our solar system is unique.
The question is WHY would any race want to colonize the entire galaxy? For the sake of colonization? By the time they're capable of doing so there's little reason to do it. Resources aren't an issue. Space isn't an issue, because there's plenty of that.
And that's not even getting into technologies that might be developed after millions of years of advancement. Such races might play with spacetime like Play-Doh. They might be able to travel dimensions, or even create them. We just have no idea.
But does an O2 rich atmosphere always indicate life? We may hypothesize that it does, but it may not. Maybe the Berserkers concentrate their efforts on intelligence- which can oppose them. And not trees and basic animals.
If you have self replicating robots, you can scorch the surface off every planet in the galaxy.
I think the falling birthrates are a temporary cultural blip, and depend on many details of our socioeconomic particulars. I don't expect them to apply universally. " We're not looking at spreading to everywhere in the galaxy" Give it 100,000 years and we will. Firstly, with advanced nanotech means a population that can be practically immortal if they want. Growth requires very low birth rates if there is no death. Then selection. If there is some cult of fertility, they will slowly outbreed the rest. Then automation, parenting may be much more attractive when a nappy changing robot is developed. Maybe a few of the aliens are total utilitarians. Stopping population growth would require strong coordination without good reason.
He doesn't even try to explain whole events, just particular pieces of evidence.
Many people find them plausible, and the most plausible of possible explanations, I'm curious to know what in particular you find unconvincing?
Hiding from advanced observation tech might well be an option with advanced hiding tech. We don't know at present.The top predator may not know they're the top predator - especially if others are hiding. Or maybe they don't want to risk losses even if they'd end up winning. (Cf you don't want to fight a nuclear war, even if you'd win it.)
If this were happening 10 years ago, I would head to Jerry Pournelle's old site and read what he and his correspondents have to say on the subject.
That ain't happening, so here is my short contribution to the conversation (if I am right, someone would have said it before me on Pournelle's site)
-possibly we are witnessing the outside of an insider's red/blue battle game, with one side using 2021 cutting edge techonology and the other side using the day-to-day technology.-prosaic explanations might not be all that prosaic - advanced designs using magnetic fields or controllable vacuum fields are "prosaic" because they build on existing technology, but not "prosaic" because of the gap between the observer and the observed (edited for length).
I am not trying to persuade anyone----illusions occur--like mercury in retrograde (now!)---his point about Venus is obviously not just when the planet "looks the same"---but various light base illusions
No, giving many planets an opportunity to roll the dice and have two come up 'life' is impossibility divided by the number of planets where such an event could occur. That's much less than impossibility squared.
They're Vogon Survey Ships. The Constructor Fleet is on it's way.
Sounds like a reasonable possibility. It's equally likely that we need to invent these things and even fool our own servicemen to cover up various radar spoofing missiles, jets, etc. If we are talking about ufos the other nations are seeing the same anomalies (from our tests over their radar, etc). It provides a solid cover.
We'd even invent a few combos - underwater equipment test with radar spoofing test to add some confusion in the mix.
Of course, I don't discount that the power of the stories to control, paranoia-cize the population, and divide it in groups of easily discredible conspiracy theorists becomes a bonus. That the government can invent a problem and then use that problem to justify more money, power, authority, etc. is pretty much the modus operandi of corrupt governments all over.
The cameras these things appear on are not designed for capturing them. That's why the report stated the need to develop sensors and tech designed specifically to capture them.
I think you're making a mistake in assuming that this is the only way to have a self-replicating protein, or the rotating gizmo pumping protons across a membrane, is the only way to accomplish those things.
I've never understood the whole "It's just Venus' dismissal. Venus is in the sky every night and every morning. It looks the same every time. It doesn't move. It doesn't zip around, or plunge into the water. Do you often get confused when looking up in the sky and seeing the same celestial objects you see every day? "Oh my! What is that, a giant cat in the sky?! Oh, no, it's just the moon."
Seriously, how many people do you think you're going to convince with this Venus theory?
That's a good point John, I hadn't thought of technological development as (yet) another random component. But you are 100% right.
I'll add it to my list. :)
No physical laws, true. But why bother? Bread mold isn't a useful analogy, because mold doesn't have a choice. It reproduces until it consumes its host bread. Regardless of whether the spores have found another piece of bread the originals are doomed as theirs is used up. Intelligent beings don't have to behave in such ways. In fact, as nations grow wealthier their birth rates slow. We're not looking at spreading to everywhere in the galaxy... so why would they?
Raw materials are plentiful. Water? More out there than we can possibly imagine. Our own solar system contains water not just on Earth but on moons, and in the countless comets of the Oort cloud. Minerals? Moons have lower gravity, making extraction easier... and asteroids have even less. There are asteroids out there in our own solar system that could crash the world economy. 16 Psyche, for example, seems to be made entirely out of nickel and iron, more than we could use in centuries, and that's just one example. Hydrogen for fusion? The gas giants are many times the size of Earth. You name it, and it's out there in easy reach for a technologically advanced civilization. Earth offers nothing they can't get elsewhere. And there's no reason to think our solar system is unique.
The question is WHY would any race want to colonize the entire galaxy? For the sake of colonization? By the time they're capable of doing so there's little reason to do it. Resources aren't an issue. Space isn't an issue, because there's plenty of that.
And that's not even getting into technologies that might be developed after millions of years of advancement. Such races might play with spacetime like Play-Doh. They might be able to travel dimensions, or even create them. We just have no idea.
But does an O2 rich atmosphere always indicate life? We may hypothesize that it does, but it may not. Maybe the Berserkers concentrate their efforts on intelligence- which can oppose them. And not trees and basic animals.